Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Insights from psychology are important, but fully rational models still exhibit an unparalleled mix of parsimony and predictive power.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
Europe is aging, and so an influx of young people is potentially valuable, but much depends on how effectively they are integrated.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
But with appropriate institutions and retraining, the effect on unemployment could be significantly mitigated.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
It is (alas) by no means clear that we can muster the political will to make the appropriate compensations.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
If the target change leads to higher inflation (otherwise, why raise the target?), then households will bear the attendant costs.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
We've already seen rates go as low as they can, so a higher inflation target opens up little room for lower rates.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
There are so many variables at work here, including how the deficit is reduced, to be sure of the effect.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
It would be a superb investment to finance infrastructure with tax revenue, but the investments are imperative regardless of tax policy.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
One sees clear evidence in a variety of laborintensive services  education, health care, professional orchestras, and so on.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Cutting taxes can stimulate growth, but typically not by enough to increase total revenue collected.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
There are too many unknowns, including the reactions of other countries, to have any confidence that this would reduce the deficit.

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Whatever the effect on the deficit, it is likely to have adverse effects on domestic prices.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
H1B visas have such a small and indirect effect on US tax revenues that one cannot be confident of a significant increase in tax revenues.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
H1B visa holders fill positions that are hard to fill domestically for structural reasons, such as skill mismatches.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Common estimates of the benefits are often wildly inflated, and fail to distinguish total economic activity form net gains in activities.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
There is too much uncertainty about his policies to know for sure, but they appear to auger well for corporate profits.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
Despite bold claims about growth, the new administration has not described an effective policy to increase GDP growth.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Peer reviewed research is not the only source of insight, but it is an essential input, and the CEA is the obvious place to provide it.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
The proposals are too vague to assess with any confidence, but the seeming isolationist theme is not encouraging.

Strongly Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
As before, the proposals are too vague to assess with confidence, but have an apparent isolationist theme that is not encouraging.

Strongly Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
It is not clear what synergies would provide the foundation for increased consumer surplus, nor are the effects on competition clear.

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 
There are more effective policies to achieve the goals, such as increased employment, typically associated with import duties.

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
One would expect a temporary decrease in the premium, but it is not obvious that the effect would be significant or longlasting.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
The ability to bring the best and the brightest from throughout the world to our economy is a great resource.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
The European Union has various structural problems, but exiting will lead to efficiency losses and to lower per capital income in the UK.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
The effect on the EU will be smaller than that on the UK, unless the European Union unravels further.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
There is much to recommend a universal basic income, but specifically a 13k income while ending all other transfers is difficult to assess.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
Fed policy may have had an effect, but this is swamped by the effects of other government policies and structural changes in the economy.

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Even better would be to divorce the provision of health care from employment entirely, but that is probably not a realistic possibility.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Other alternatives, such as appropriately regulating reserves and leverage, would also be effective.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
One cannot hope to make effective economic policy without reliable data.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Economic policy is often imprecise, but abandoning the data and making policy blindly would be even worse.

Strongly Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
Toughness in trade negotiations is considerably less important than factors such as skillbiased technical change in manufacturing.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
There is extensive research and impossibility results showing that there is no perfect voting system.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Winnertakeall elections with multiple candidates are fertile ground for generating perverse results.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
The price appears to fluctuate more vigorously than can be explained simply by changes in fundamentals.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
A decade is long enough, and the economies complicated enough, that anything could happen.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Once the mindset that exit must be prevented at all costs is broken, others will more readily follow.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
China's growth numbers have long been suspect; it is remarkable that new evidence of their weakness has so much effect on world markets.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Despite curmudgeonly economics articles, the revealed preference is that people derive gains from these activities.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
The conventional wisdom is that the strong November jobs report clinches a rate increase, and I see no reason to disagree.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
Inflation has been surprising dormant, so there appear to have been few adverse consequences of prolonged low rates.

Disagree  6 
Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on longterm issues in their investments and other decisions.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
A year is still too short of a horizon to be confident that executives would appropriately weight longterm issues, which may span decades.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
The modest push toward better weighting of longterm issues must be balanced against the attendant loss of information and accountability.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
But testing is just one of many measures, and is a noisy measure, and can induce distortions in behavior.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
In some cases, health outcomes have improved without significant income growth, and it is difficult to say that the causality runs one way.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
There are many other measures that should also be used, but this measure is informative.

Uncertain  5 
Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Health care insurance should provide care more efficiently than the current lack of insurance coupled with reliance on emergency services.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Basic medical care, especially preventative care, brings gains that are large compared to the costs.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Our elasticity estimates provide only local information about labor demand functions, giving little insight into such a large increase.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Disagree  5 
The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Voting no as a bargaining chip is not promising. There should be mutual gains from keeping Greece in the euro, if the will can be found.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
This is a difficult inference problem.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
The weak yen gives rise to winners and losers in the US; it is not clear that the net effect (even if we could measure it) is negative.

Disagree  5 
Behavior in many complex and seemingly intractable strategic settings can be understood more clearly by working out what each party in the game will choose to do if they realize that the other parties will be solving the same problem. This insight has helped us understand behavior as diverse as military conflicts, price setting by competing firms and penalty kicking in soccer.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
But one must be careful not to apply such equilibrium analysis in setting where it is not warranted.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Yes, because it misses many innovations, but at the same time the upper end of the income distribution is extraordinarily better off.

Agree  7 
Californians would be better off on average if all final users in the state paid the same price for water — adjusted for quality, place and time — even if, as a result, some food prices rose sharply and some farms failed.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
"On average" hides some serious adverse consequences for some people, but rationalizing water prices would be a great step forward.

Agree  7 
The Fed should wait until its preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is clearly rising — and not just forecast to rise — before it begins hiking interest rates.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
Other factors, such as unemployment and participation rates, should also enter the Fed's decision.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
Benefits are wildly exaggerated in the popular press, and we lack definitive scientific evidence either way.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
Such competitive does enhance allocative efficiency, but its primary effect is to transfer surplus from other taxpayers to firms.

Disagree  5 
Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
But it would be quite reasonable to limit the negative externality imposed by the unvaccinated by, e.g., excluding them from public schools.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 
Greek economic institutions are notoriously ineffective; the troika program may provide the commitment needed to build working institutions.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
It's always difficult to turn qualitative predictions into precise estimates, but existing research can surely be helpful.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Behavioral responses will be most important for large changes, but the effects of large changes are particularly difficult to estimate.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
The net burden is lower than the retail price, but still scandalously high.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  10 
There are too many imperfections and frictions in this market to model it simply in terms of demand and supply.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
The decline in price is less significant than the technological progress in resource extraction it reflects, which should promote growth.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  9 
We hate to be called the dismal science, but I fear we can be a dismal lot  or perhaps we work so hard there is no time to spend money.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
A surplus is often taken to indicate a healthy economy, but it is not obvious how producing more than it consume makes a country better off.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
"Significantly" is always a difficult word.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Even better would be to have no corporate income tax and to have a sufficiently progressive consumption tax, but that's wishful thinking.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Without something like fast track, trade deals are notoriously difficult.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Unfortunately, benefitting most still leaves ample room for adverse effects for some.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
Compared to no electronic market, Amazon has probably increased supply. Compared to a "competitive electronic market," probably not.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Electronic markets are full of network externalities, which should be recognized as a form of natural monopoly.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
Many forces at work, both economic, social and political, making it difficult to identify one as most important.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Consumer welfare may rise (though difficult to measure), but it will not be a Pareto improvement for consumers, making evaluation difficult.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
This is unclear  pegging the Scottish to the English pound might essentially replicate the current state of affairs.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
It would increase welfare; income is more difficult to assess.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Unfortunately, current spending appears to trump properly funded pensions when it comes to seeking reelection.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Hope springs eternal, but the alternatives look bleak.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Absent frictions, prices would fall world wide. We can expect US firms to gain from some frictions, though the magnitude is hard to assess.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
This is too complicated a costbenefit problem to assess. I think the ARRA was a good idea, but this reflects faith rather than analysis.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
The essence of the Fed is to be independent. Congressional meddling is not a set forward.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
Conclusive evidence is difficult to come by, but there appears to be no evidence that they have a positive effect.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  6 
Open source is at least a viable alternative. Patents have advantages, but their net effect is unclear.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Such institutions can also impose social costs. If done well, the benefits outweigh the costs. The trick is to ensure this is the case.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  9 
It is an empirical question whether this disadvantage will overcome taste for discrimination, and whether markets will eliminate such firms.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
This would be a great idea if the market for service provision was competitive, but is less obvious with our current market.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Default looks less likely, but structural problems in the euro zone remain, and much has yet to transpire before default is truly unlikely.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  1 
One would surely expect the athletes to capture some of surplus, just as baseball players did when the reserve clause was eliminated.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  6 
We have evidence both ways  sanctions of Myanmar and North Korea have accomplished little, while sanctions on Iran may be useful.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
We need to rationalize our organ allocation mechanism, but a market is not the only way, and is not obviously the best way.

Uncertain  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Automation can cause significant displacement and can require costly adjustments, but has not reduced longrun employment.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
Unimagined innovations have revolutionized life in the past, and I suspect they will continue to do so.

Uncertain  6 
Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
We'll never know the counterfactual, but there is reason to believe that Ben Bernanke helped avert disaster, despite an ineffective Congress

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Surge pricing enhances efficiency, for the reasons listed. Efficiency is not the only goal; antigouging laws reflect other worthy goals.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  10 
Gift giving is a form of communication. Comparing the gift to what the recepient would purchase with cash misses the esssence of gifts.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
There will be gains and losses of various types to various people; it is difficult to reduce these to a net effect on an average citizen.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
These are the most likely candidates for people who will be adversely affected.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Picking a few stocks makes sense only if one has better information than the market, which is unlikely without inside information.

Strongly Agree  9 