The EU's legislation to regulate artificial intelligence is likely to put European technology firms at a substantial disadvantage to their competitors elsewhere in the world.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
5
Question B: By providing a clear set of rules, the EU's legislation on artificial intelligence is likely to enhance research and innovation by firms building the new technology.
Question A: Europe’s economic growth performance over the last 25 years has been measurably better than it would have been in the absence of the single currency.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
7
Comment: The Euro has been positive for growth in important respects but 2010-12 showed risks of monetary union without more fiscal integration
Question B: With euro area member states having given up their ability to carry out independent monetary policy, it is substantially more difficult for them to respond effectively to country-specific macroeconomic disturbances.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
8
Comment: And independent monetary policy has been valuable for the UK
Question A: A constitutional rule that limits the size of budget deficits that governments can run as a share of GDP is an effective way to impose discipline on a country’s public finances.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
7
Comment: Effective at what? At pure discipline, probably yes. In economic terms not unless well designed with respect to cyclical and investment issues.
Question B: Germany’s debt brake is a substantial constraint on vital public investment in physical/digital infrastructure and the green transition.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: Especially after November’s Constitutional Court ruling
The fundamental cause of Argentina’s high inflation is unfunded fiscal commitments that are being financed by the central bank.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Question B: Even if Argentina could marshal the resources to make a full switch to using US dollars for domestic transactions, it would substantially increase the volatility of Argentine GDP.
Question A: It is best for society if the management of publicly traded corporations only considers the impact of their decisions on customers, employees, and community members to the extent that these effects feedback to affect shareholder wealth.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
6
Comment: Statement would be true only under implausible assumptions about absence of externalities and market power
Question B: The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Question A: By enabling women’s life choices about education, work and family, the contraceptive pill made a substantial contribution to closing gender gaps in the labor market for professionals.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question B: Gender gaps in today’s labor market arise less from differences in educational and occupational choices than from the differential career impact of parenthood and social norms around men's and women’s roles in childrearing.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question C: The gender gap in pay would be substantially reduced if firms had fewer incentives to offer disproportionate rewards to individuals who work long and/or inflexible hours.
Question A: The EU's taxonomy for sustainable activities - a classification system that defines criteria for economic activities that are aligned with a net zero trajectory by 2050 and the broader environmental goals other than climate - is an effective way to steer greener investment and the energy transition by firms and financial institutions.
Question A: Fiscal rules on budget deficits and public debt levels are an essential part of a sound fiscal framework.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
7
Question B: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, budget deficits in Europe have been measurably lower, on average, than would have been the case without common budget rules.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
7
Question C: Since the inception of the Stability and Growth Pact, the path of GDP growth in Europe has been measurably more stable than would have been the case without common budget rules.
Question A: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in Europe is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
6
Question B: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy is dominant corporations in uncompetitive markets taking advantage of their market power to raise prices in order to increase their profit margins.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Question C: A significant factor behind today’s inflation in some sectors of the European economy (both competitive and concentrated) is distortions in the aggregate economy where supply does not meet demand.
Question A: If countries could impose a ban on the use of ChatGPT and similar generative AI chatbot services that is technologically effective, they would experience a measurably negative impact on national innovation.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Question B: Regardless of whether advances in AI spur productivity growth, they are likely to create deep challenges for society – in areas from labor markets to politics, and including disinformation, privacy, crime, and warfare – that will be difficult to anticipate, plan for, and contain.
Question A: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will lead to a substantial increase in the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: I’m assuming “increase” means relative to world without AI.
Question B: Use of artificial intelligence over the next ten years will have a substantially bigger impact on the growth rates of real per capita income in the US and Western Europe over the subsequent two decades than the internet has had over the past two decades.
Question A: Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by raising contributions while working.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question B: Preserving the financial viability of France's state pension system is better achieved by raising the effective retirement age than by reducing benefits once retired.
Question A: Financial regulators in the US and Europe lack the tools and authority to deter runs on banks by uninsured depositors.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: They can reduce the probability of runs but not to zero, especially where there are underlying solvency doubts.
Question B: Not guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in full would have created substantial damage to the US economy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Uncertain
7
Comment: The full guarantee (and the generous Bank Term Funding Program) are very questionable unless such damage was in prospect. So I am close to “agreeing”. But SVB was hardly seen as systemic beforehand, and it’s not clear why the authorities did not stick to orthodox haircuts etc.
Question C: Fully guaranteeing uninsured deposits at Silicon Valley Bank substantially increases banks’ incentives to engage in excessive risk-taking.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Unless policy responds robustly to strengthen regulation — notably by higher equity capital requirements — this will increase moral hazard
Question A: The amendments to the Northern Ireland protocol agreed by the UK and the EU are unlikely to have a measurable direct impact on UK growth over the next two years.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
5
Comment: Positive but unclear whether a measurable impact in two years
Question B: If renewed UK-EU scientific cooperation were achieved in the wake of the Windsor framework, it would be likely to have a measurable positive impact on UK growth over the next five years.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Disagree
6
Comment: The question contains a big “if”. Failure to renew cooperation could be quite damaging for the UK economy.
Question A: Loosening regulations on state aid to allow targeted incentives for companies in certain sectors will substantially improve the EU’s relative attractiveness for corporate investment.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Uncertain
5
Comment: The regime already allows appropriate targeting. Loosening could well result in more losers than winners taking subsidy costs into account.
Question B: Loosening regulations on state aid will give a substantial advantage to the economies of EU members with stronger public finances.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Comment: Maybe to subsidy recipients in those economies but to the detriment of their taxpayers.
Question C: Even if looser regulations on state aid are temporary, they risk permanent damage to the EU’s longstanding competition policy regime.
Question A: Without government intervention, take-up of electric vehicles will be substantially less than is desirable to reduce carbon emissions.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Question B: To encourage greater take-up of electric vehicles, public expenditure on infrastructure to support them (such as charging stations) is likely to be more cost-effective than providing equivalent amounts as tax credits/purchase rebates for buyers.
Question A: Network externalities give Twitter an incumbent advantage that will slow substantially the migration of users who would prefer alternative platforms.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question B: As of now, there needs to be more government regulation around Twitter’s content moderation and personal data protection.
Question A: The carbon border adjustment mechanism will ensure that the European Union’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of EU production in the sectors under the mechanism to non-EU countries with less ambitious climate policies (‘carbon leakage').
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Comment: “Ensure” seems too strong but it should help.
Question B: To the extent that the carbon border adjustment mechanism is effective in reducing emissions and carbon leakage, it will impose substantial costs on the economies of poorer countries.
Question A: Research on the nature and impact of bank runs has made it possible to limit the occurrence of financial crises and the economic damage they cause.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
8
Comment: Yes but whether policy since 2008 has gone far enough to limit the occurrence and consequences of crises is another matter
Question B: Despite repeated reforms of financial regulation (and macroprudential policies in some countries), there will always be occasional financial crises.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
8
Comment: Future crises are inevitable but they would be less probable and less damaging if post-2008 reforms had gone further
Question A: The UK’s removal of the cap on bankers' bonuses (introduced by the EU in 2014 and which limits payouts to two times annual base salary) will provide a measurable boost to the country’s economic growth.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
7
Comment: I expect little macro effect but with some tail risk of negative effects from excessive risk-taking.
Question B: Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will measurably enhance the global competitiveness of the UK’s financial services sector.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Uncertain
6
Comment: The cap has not applied to the overall level of remuneration, just the mix of salary and bonus.
Question C: Removing the cap on bankers' bonuses will pose a measurable risk to financial stability in the UK.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Disagree
6
Comment: Maybe, given that UK banks have less equity capital than they should, but measurable? Anyway the better solution is more equity capital, not regulation of pay structures.
Question A: A price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries on purchases of Russian oil and oil-related products (and which applies to all importers of Russian oil using Western trade infrastructure, shipping, and insurance) would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
6
Question B: The oil price cap imposed by the G7/EU countries will not have a substantial effect on the world oil price (such as the Brent crude benchmark).
Question A: The increasing share of income and wealth among the richest people in a number of advanced countries is giving significantly more political power to the wealthy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Question B: The increasing share of income and wealth among the richest people in a number of advanced countries is having a significantly negative effect on intergenerational social mobility.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
6
Question C: The increasing share of income and wealth among the richest people in a number of advanced countries is a major threat to capitalism.
Question A: A windfall tax on the excess profits of large oil and gas companies – with the revenue rebated to households – would be an efficient way to provide temporary relief for the average household in European countries from rising energy costs.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: Fiscal measures putting a cap on consumer energy prices would be a more appropriate immediate response to increased inflation in the euro area than raising interest rates.
Stablecoins that are not fully backed by either central bank reserves or government securities with minimal price volatility are inherently vulnerable to runs.
High tariffs imposed by the European Union on imports of Russian natural gas would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia while limiting disruption to supplies to Europe.
Rather than using second-round runoffs to settle elections in which no candidate wins a first-round majority, the overall preferences of the electorate would be better reflected by using a single round with ranked-choice voting, in which voters are instructed to rank all of the candidates.
Rising energy prices suggest that the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will have to increase interest rates faster than they intended to before the invasion.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Uncertain
8
Comment: Too soon to say whether these effects on inflation are transitory or will become embedded through expectations etc.
Question B: Increased public spending by European countries to accommodate larger defense budgets, migration inflows and accelerated investment in alternative energy sources would be better financed mostly through taxes, rather than debt.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
6
Question C: Economic damage from the shock to global commodity markets will fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Comment: Effects will vary according to net commodity positions but overall disproportionate negative seems likely, including indirect effects too.
The fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be stagflationary in that it will noticeably reduce global growth and raise global inflation over the next year.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Question B: The economic and financial sanctions already implemented will lead to a deep recession in Russia.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
4
Agree
7
Question C: Targeting the Russian economy through a total ban on oil and gas imports carries a high risk of recession in European economies.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
6
Comment: High risk in some but I’m interpreting the question as about European economies as a whole.
Question D: Weaponizing dollar finance is likely to lead to a significant shift away from the dollar as the dominant international currency.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
6
Comment: I reject/don’t understand the premise, but anyway don’t expect a big shift from $.
High volatility in the prices of crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum largely reflects movements in investor sentiment rather than news about potential sources of fundamental value (such as possible applications, or use in illicit transactions).
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question B: Given existing regulation of the financial system, as crypto assets grow in value and become more connected to the rest of the system, the fluctuations in their valuations will pose a serious risk to financial stability in advanced economies.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
6
Question C: Private unbacked crypto assets serve no important economic purpose.
Firms’ incentives to reduce costs by sourcing inputs and products abroad have caused many European industries to become more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
6
Question B: Private firms have inadequate incentives to make investments to reduce the risk that disruptions in the supply of imports will cause shortages and raise domestic prices.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
6
Question C: Prioritisation of efficiency over resilience in global supply chains makes current disruptions likely to continue beyond 2022.
Given the centrality of semiconductors to the manufacturing of many products, securing reliable supplies should be a key strategic objective of EU and national policy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
5
Comment: Hard to disagree but beware possible protectionist undertones of "strategic objective"
Question B: Europe’s small role in global semiconductor production is a direct result of insufficient private investment in high-tech innovation.
Question C: Public support at EU and national level for investment along the value chain for semiconductors, including production, would be the most effective way to ensure security of supply.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: A wider international approach would be better than striving for self-sufficiency
Even without renewed Covid-19 restrictions, uncertainty about the health threat from the Omicron variant is likely to deliver a significant hit to economic activity from now through the first half of 2022.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Question B: If world vaccine supply continues to be limited, global social welfare would rise by more if those vaccines were made widely available across Africa (with support for effective delivery) rather than accelerating booster vaccinations in rich countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
5
Question C: Imposing travel bans on countries where new Covid-19 variants are discovered will make it less likely that countries will reveal new variants to the rest of the world.
Question A: Voluntary national targets are unlikely to be an effective mechanism for achieving sharp reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Question B: Agreement on a significant global price floor for all carbon emissions would be an effective step towards achieving sharp reductions in emissions.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question C: Green innovation in the private sector would be strongly stimulated by a substantial increase in public spending on R&D for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Question A: The introduction of natural experiments to economic analysis of the labor market and related areas has led to a more precise understanding of cause and effect.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
8
Question B: The ‘credibility revolution’ in empirical economics has improved our understanding of a number of public policy issues, including education, immigration and the minimum wage.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
8
Question C: In pursuit of credible research designs, researchers often seek good answers instead of good questions.
Question A: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures (such as their greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint) would provide financially material information that enables investors to make better decisions.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
7
Comment: Financially material for some companies but not others
Question B: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would induce them to reduce their climate impact significantly.
The introduction of even small trade frictions between neighboring countries can result in significant economic damage, particularly to smaller exporting firms.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
6
Question B: A national economic boom based on natural resources is likely to harm other sectors of the economy, particularly manufacturing firms.
Question A: A global minimum corporate tax rate would limit the benefits to companies of shifting profits to low-tax jurisdictions without biasing where they invest.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: An international tax system in which the major advanced economies set a minimum rate on corporate income is achievable.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question C: A global corporate tax system that is based on the location of final consumers would be more efficient than one based on the location of corporate headquarters and production facilities.
Question A: Under a fixed exchange rate and fully liberalized capital flows, a country loses domestic control of monetary policy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
8
Question B: For emerging and developing economies open to the world capital market, a flexible exchange rate confers little advantage over a pegged exchange rate in terms of economic stability.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
6
Question C: The key feature making the US a more natural optimum currency area than the euro area is higher labor mobility.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Disagree
8
Comment: Labour mobility is certainly a key feature but so is political/fiscal integration
Question A: Reliable Covid-19 vaccines will reach developing countries more quickly if the rich countries pay the pharmaceutical companies at prevailing prices to manufacture and distribute the vaccines (or to license production and support licensees), rather than waiving patent protection.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Agree
6
Question B: The benefits to the US, Canada, Europe, Japan and other rich countries of paying for 12 billion doses of Covid vaccines at prevailing prices and providing them for free to the rest of the world exceed the costs that the rich countries would incur.
Question A: The Bank for International Settlements defines a central bank digital currency as follows: ‘In simple terms, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would be a digital banknote. It could be used by individuals to pay businesses, shops or each other (a 'retail CBDC'), or between financial institutions to settle trades in financial markets (a ‘wholesale CBDC').
For developed countries, a central bank digital currency that is available to the public at large would offer social benefits that exceed the associated costs or risks.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
7
Question B: Central banks that do not introduce their own digital money risk losing the ability to conduct effective monetary policy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
7
Question C: The introduction of a central bank digital currency is unlikely to have major effects on the economy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
7
Comment: Efficiency gains from CBDC could have big effects on bank business models, further strengthening the case for them to be better-capitalised.
Question A: Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would substantially improve availability of the vaccines in developing countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Question B: Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would have a negative impact on vaccine development efforts for future variants of SARS-CoV-2 or for the next pandemic.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
Question C: Without an international agreement that facilitates vaccine trade, countries’ incentives to limit exports of vaccines and/or key production inputs are likely to prolong the adverse effects of the pandemic in advanced countries.
Question A: Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question B: Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would result in significantly less short selling.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
6
Question C: Regulatory restrictions on short selling - such as no naked shorts, temporary bans in times of crisis - make it difficult for optimists and pessimists to have equal influence on asset prices.
Question A: EU Covid-19 vaccination efforts are significantly behind those of Israel, Serbia, the UK and the US.
Offering substantially higher prices per dose would have resulted in larger capacity investments by vaccine makers and accelerated distribution in Europe significantly.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Agree
5
Question B: In the current situation, paying for more production capacity would be better than offering higher prices for vaccines.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
2
Agree
5
Question C: If the EU started paying prices above 100 euros per dose, it would on net reduce the cost of the pandemic to the EU via more lives saved and shorter lockdowns.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
5
Comment: I'd agree if there were no diversion from rest of world but that seems a major issue
Question A: Policies that aim to reduce obesity by increasing incentives for physical activity would be more welfare-improving than policies that increase the financial costs of consuming calories.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Question B: A ban on advertising junk foods (those that are high in sugar, salt and fat) would be an effective policy to reduce child obesity.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Agree
5
Question C: Setting targets for schools to reduce obesity (e.g. by diverting financial resources to improve school meals or add cookery to the curriculum) would reduce social welfare because schools in deprived areas, where obesity is higher, are already struggling to deliver the core curriculum.
Question A: The current US federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. States can choose whether to have a higher minimum - and many do.
A federal minimum wage of $15 per hour would lower employment for low-wage workers in many states.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Question B: A federal minimum wage that is pegged to state and/or local conditions such as the cost of living would be preferable to the current arrangements that give states a role in setting the policy.
Question A: The UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: Not certain but more likely than not. Substantial negative effects on investment and productivity already since the referendum.
Question B: The aggregate economy of the 27 countries still in the EU is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than if the UK had not left.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: Brexit is negative for the EU27 but relative scale probably falls short of several % by 2030.
Question A: Our understanding of labor productivity has been much enhanced by accounting for monetary and promotion-based incentives within firms and related selection effects.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Question B: Large salaries for senior business executives are less a reflection of an individual’s current contribution to a firm’s overall performance than a ‘prize’ for those who put in the effort to achieve one of the top positions.
Question A: A wealth tax would be an effective way to reduce inequality.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
7
Comment: Reform of the hotch-potch of existing capital taxes might be more effective. Simply adding to the hotch-potch could backfire.
Question B: A wealth tax in a form discussed in the UK (where individuals could be taxed a percentage of their net worth over £750,000, excluding any personal pension savings and their main home) would be an effective way to improve public finances after the Covid-19 crisis.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
7
Question C: A public policy goal that could be accomplished with a well-enforced wealth tax could be accomplished at lower cost with modifications to existing taxes, such as income tax, capital gains tax, inheritance tax and property tax.
Question A: Google's dominance of the market for internet search arose mainly from a combination of economies of scale and a quality algorithm.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
6
Question B: In light of Google’s dominance, its current operating practices could have a substantial negative effect on social welfare in the long run.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question C: The nature of the market dominance of technology giants in the digital economy warrants either the imposition of some kind of regulation or a fundamental change in antitrust policy.
The practical application of auction theory to the licensing of rights to use public assets like radiospectrum and other natural resources has generated substantially higher government revenues and better allocative efficiency worldwide than would have happened under previous arrangements.
Question A: Right now, the central focus of fiscal policy should be on temporary measures to provide protection and promote rapid economic recovery rather than trying to advance other objectives, such as reducing debt, tackling climate change or addressing inequality.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
8
Question B: Cutting taxes on firms (or delaying tax collection) will allow more of them to survive and be more effective than public spending for triggering a rapid economic recovery.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
6
Question C: European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should be primarily in the form of grants rather than loans.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
7
Question D: European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should not be made on condition of commitments to reform by recipients.
Question A: Given the social and regulatory pressures to keep prices down for drugs and vaccines to treat Covid-19, the financial incentives for pharmaceutical companies to invest in such products are below the value of the investment to society.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6
Question B: Government commitments to pay developers and manufacturers above average costs for an effective vaccine or drug treatments for Covid-19 would accelerate production.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
6
Question C: Given the positive externalities from vaccination, an effective Covid-19 vaccine should have priority in public healthcare funding even in countries where other diseases cause more death and disability.
Question A: Political conflict plays a key role in shaping economic decisions, policies and outcomes.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
8
Question B: Most European countries have larger social welfare systems than the United States in part because the latter is more heterogeneous by race and ethnicity.
Question A: Clearing the market for surgical face masks using prices is detrimental to the public good.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: In a crisis there has to be a better way than the price mechanism to allocate such goods, but will governments establish one?
Question B: Laws to prevent high prices for essential goods in short supply in a crisis would raise social welfare.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: It depends how good the rationing mechanism is. And beware adverse supply response.
Question C: Governments should buy essential medical supplies at what would have been the market price and redistribute according to need rather than ability to pay.
Question A: Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
6
Question B: A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
6
Question C: Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.
Question A: Government support to private firms in the form of debt (either directly or with the help of public guarantees) is desirable, but risks leaving them with too much leverage to invest and grow in the future.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Agree
7
Question B: Providing funds to viable businesses in the form of equity injections is a vital complement to debt support.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
7
Question C: With the EU ban on state aid suspended, government capital injections should be provided via a newly created pan-European equity fund, rather than be left to national governments acting independently.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
7
Comment: There is no such fund, or institutional context for one, and principles of operation are unclear
Even with the support policies implemented by European governments in response to the crisis, low-income workers will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Agree
7
Comment: Low-income workers tend to have less job security but income from capital could drop sharply
Question B: With schools across Europe closed in the lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
8
Question C: Combating the effects of the pandemic on inequality should be a priority for policy interventions.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Comment: Inequality concern is reflected in design of govt support packages such as the UK job retention scheme
Question A: Severe lockdowns – including closing non-essential businesses and strict limitations on people’s movement – are likely to be better for the economy in the medium term than less aggressive measures.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
8
Comment: There are too many epidemiological unknowns. Much depends on exit path from lockdown.
Question B: While national governments have responded to the crisis with substantial economic policy measures, a joint euro area fiscal response is still highly desirable.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Strongly Agree
8
Question C: Given the willingness of the European Central Bank to buy sovereign bonds, including Italian bonds, without limits, there is no need for ‘coronabonds’.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
7
Comment: Need depends on whose perspective you take. Beware political dangers of using this crisis to create eurobonds without federal institutions
Question A: Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Question B: The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Uncertain
6
Comment: Hard to disentangle supply and demand effects. And beware financial consequences -- credit crunch, loan defaults, effects on insurers, etc.
Question C: The economic policy institutions of the Eurozone are well equipped to ameliorate the potential economic damage from COVID-19.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
7
Comment: Lack of fiscal coordination. And financial sector measures could have adverse fiscal consequences in some scenarios.
Question A: Germany's current account surplus is undesirable even from a purely German viewpoint: the country would be better off if, for example, it ran a smaller primary surplus, in turn leading to a smaller current account surplus.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Comment: More spending on infrastructure would appear particularly desirable
Question B: The Eurozone would be in better shape if fiscal policy were more expansionary, which would allow monetary policy to be slightly less so.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Agree
7
Question C: If there is a recession in the Eurozone, it will be essential to have a coordinated fiscal expansion.
Question A: Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
7
Disagree
7
Comment: Net effect of withdrawal certainty and heightened trade agreement uncertainty, given PM's commitment not to extend transition, is unclear
Question B: Given that the transition period currently expires at the end of 2020, there is still a considerable risk that the UK will leave the European Union without a trade agreement.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: Clear risk of UK/EU not concluding trade agreement in 2020, even for goods only. Irony that risk reduces the more UK aligns with EU rules.
Question C: Leaving the European Union without a trade agreement would have a large negative impact on the UK economy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
6
Agree
7
Comment: Absence of trade agreement with UK's main trading partner would be a large negative supply shock at least in the short term
Question A: Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
6
Question B: The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
8
Uncertain
6
Comment: If such risks do threaten financial stability, it will be mainly because financial regulation (eg of bank capital) is too weak
Question A: Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public R&D spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private R&D spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Public R&D might well be better directed but if near optimal to start with, private R&D externalities could do more good at the margin
Question B: Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public medical research spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private medical research spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.
Question A: Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
7
Comment: Uncertain because much depends on surrounding public policies towards such externalities.
Question B: Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with small impacts on shareholder value.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Question C:
Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.
Rising inequality is straining the health of liberal democracy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
7
Comment: The health of liberal democracy is under strain not only in countries where inequality has risen
Question B: Enacting more redistributive expenditures and policies would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
7
Comment: Causes of the rise of populism do not seem well enough understood
Question C: European governments should allocate more resources to policies that would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe, even if it means higher public debt or lower public spending in other areas.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Agree
7
Comment: While some policies that might curb the rise of populism in Europe have merit, some others plainly do not
At this point, there is little that the European Central Bank can do to increase or maintain output in the Eurozone.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
7
Question B: When the economy is operating below its potential, larger fiscal deficits are likely to increase demand and output.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Question C: When the economy is operating below its potential and monetary policy is at the effective lower bound, fiscal policy should prioritize increasing output over decreasing public debt.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
7
Comment: Yes if fiscal position is sound but not necessarily otherwise
Selecting candidates for membership of the ECB Executive Board based primarily on nationality ahead of competence is likely to have a negative effect on the quality of monetary policy in the Eurozone.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Question B: Although the central bank can never be an entirely technocratic institution, the selection process for the ECB President and members of the Executive Board is significantly worsened by intergovernmental trade-offs involving appointments to other European institutions.
On bids for infrastructure projects, the average European would be better off if Europe’s governments favored European firms over Chinese firms (or firms from any other country with non-profit-related geopolitical strategies) — even if it means sometimes choosing a higher-cost bidder.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
5
Comment: It depends on whether there are serious security issues in play. If not, don't restrict bidders.
Question A: Breaking the “doom loop” — a negative spiral that can result when banks hold sovereign bonds and governments bail out banks — would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
8
Comment: Breaking the doom loop would help but, irrespective of sovereign bond holdings, European banks need to be much better capitalised.
Question B: Regulators should try to break the doom loop by assigning positive risk weights — in calculating banks’ capital requirements — to banks’ holdings of domestic and other Eurozone sovereign bonds.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
8
Comment: Sovereign bonds should plainly have positive risk weights in some circumstances, for obvious risk reasons, not just doom loop reasons.
Question C: Breaking the doom loop would impose substantial costs on powerful political constituencies.
Residents of big European cities would be better off, on balance, if governments did more to counter gentrification, for example by using rent and other housing subsidies, public housing investments, zoning regulations, or similar policies.
Question A: A common European deposit insurance scheme, once fully implemented, would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
8
Comment: But other measures matter more -- e.g. depositor preference for insured deposits. Then, if(??) resolution works, deposits are safe anyway.
Question A: Overall, public spending on the arts in Europe creates benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Question B: Additional public spending on the arts in Europe would create incremental benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.
Question A: The average European is better off if Europe’s competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
9
Disagree
7
Comment: Weakening of competition is likely to be negative, not positive, for the efficiency of European firms. So not the way to promote champions.
Question B: If China and other countries use policies that create giant international firms, then the average European is better off if Europe's competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.
Question A: Letting publicly traded European firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: The change would heighten incentive problems around the annual results even if it eased the quarterly issues. Net effect unclear.
Question B: A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders of European firms.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Uncertain
5
Comment: Shareholders of such firms need more than annual visibility of corporate performance
Question A: To the extent that public corporations pursue social and environmental initiatives, they tend to achieve higher risk-adjusted (private) returns than otherwise similar corporations that pursue such initiatives less.
Question A: The fiscal rules of the European Union should give more flexibility to member countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6
Question B: The Italian budget for 2019 that the European Commission rejected in October would have increased Italy’s risk of fiscal insolvency substantially.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: See bond yields
Question C: If France runs a 2019 budget deficit of around 3.4% of GDP, as announced by President Macron’s government, France’s risk of fiscal insolvency will increase substantially.
Question A: Capping the number of ride-sharing drivers as is being discussed in New York City, Chicago and London will make the average resident in that city worse off.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Uncertain
7
Question B:
To achieve a given level of congestion, it would be better to use taxes for driving that vary based on the level of congestion, rather than limiting the number of ride-sharing vehicles.
People who migrated to Europe between 2015 and 2018 are likely — over the next two decades — to contribute more in taxes paid than they receive in benefits and public services.
Question A: The European Commission has proposed new rules to ensure that “digital business activities are taxed in a fair and growth-friendly way in the EU”. Consider two statements regarding this proposal:
An EU-wide 3% tax on revenue from digital activities would, on balance, be a good idea.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Question B:
If the EU decides to tax digital service providers, it would be better — given the difficulties of measuring and verifying digital activity — to tax them on the revenue, rather than the profits, that they generate locally.
The European Union often uses its antitrust powers to protect EU-based firms from international competition, rather than to promote greater competition in European markets.
Question A: Trade with China makes most Europeans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
8
Question B: Some Europeans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
7
Comment: Wider long-term gains from trade may offset short-run losses for workers in such sectors. -see background information here
Question C: If the EU followed the new US steel tariffs by imposing similar EU tariffs on steel from China, it would improve Europeans’ welfare.
Question A: Assuming it exits its third bailout program this summer without an immediate restructuring or other debt relief, Greece is unlikely to default on its sovereign debt in the coming decade.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: 10Y bond yield of 4.2% is well above bunds but does not suggest that default is more likely than not
Question B: Greece would be better off if it had decided to exit the euro between 2011 and 2015.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
7
Comment: Major exit costs v some benefits of devaluation. Euro-denominated debt would still need servicing.
Question C: If Greece had defaulted on (or restructured) its private debt in 2010, while also staying within the euro, that combination would have been better for Greece than either exiting the euro or proceeding as it has actually done.
The US spends roughly 17% of GDP on healthcare, according to the OECD; most European countries spend less than 12% of GDP.
Higher quality-adjusted US healthcare prices contribute relatively more to the extra US spending than does the combination of higher quantity and quality of US care (interpreting quantity and quality to reflect both greater American healthcare needs due to underlying population health and the delivery of more or better healthcare services to Americans).
Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.
Holding other policies fixed, the average European would be better off if every European country taxed corporate profits at a rate of 20% (based as closely as possible on a common definition of profits).
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Disagree
6
Question B: If other policies were held fixed and every European country taxed corporate profits at a common rate of 20%, then reducing that common rate substantially below 20% would make the average European better off.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Strongly Disagree
6
Comment: Answer might be different if other policies not held fixed
Question A: All else equal, if corporations throughout Europe set quotas for a minimum number of women board members, the shareholder value of European companies would increase.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
2
Uncertain
5
Question B: Taking into account the likely effects on investments in human capital by men and women, setting quotas throughout Europe for a minimum number of women board members would generate substantial net benefits for Europeans.
Question A: Subsidizing renewable energy sources is better than taxing fossil fuels, assuming the subsidy or tax would be set at levels that would reduce carbon emissions by an equivalent amount.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
4
Disagree
6
Comment: Activities that generate negative externalities need direct discouragement
Question B: Germany’s solar-energy subsidies to date have produced net social benefits for Germany.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Disagree
5
Comment: They look a high-cost way to get the benefits, many of which are non-German. Hard to judge the net effect.
Question C: Solar-energy subsidies to date in Germany and other countries have produced net social benefits for the world.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
3
Uncertain
5
Comment: Again they look a high-cost way of doing it, even allowing for dynamic cost-reduction effects on solar power.
Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.
The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
Question A: Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
6
Question B: Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.
Question A: Consumers will be better off, on balance, if European cities treat firms that provide ride-sharing platforms (such as Uber) as substantively different from taxi firms, and thus not necessarily warranting the same regulation.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Comment: New technology changes the nature and extent of market failure. (De)regulation should reflect that.
Question B: Assuming that taxi and ride-sharing companies were treated as substantively similar — including requirements that they operate on an equal footing regarding safety, insurance and taxation — letting ride-sharing services compete without restrictions on prices or routes would raise consumer welfare.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Question C: Regardless of how ride-sharing services are treated, existing regulations for traditional taxi firms in many European cities harm consumers by limiting competition.
Question A: Revising France’s labor market policies — by reducing employment protection, decentralizing labor negotiations to the firm level, and making training programs more accessible and responsive to labor demands — would, all else equal, increase productivity in France’s economy.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Agree
7
Question B: Reducing employment protection would reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate in France.
Question A: The ECB's asset purchases over the past two years have reduced the threat of deflation in the euro area as a whole.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Question B: If the economic outlook in the euro area becomes less favorable, then increasing the ECB's asset purchase program (in size or duration) would substantially increase the euro area's economic growth over the following five years.
In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Strongly Agree
9
Comment: Assuming a degree of risk aversion. However some investors might rationally want some exposure to assets not available passively.
Question A: Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Question B: In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.
Question A: All else equal, there are substantial advantages to having much of
Europe’s human capital and infrastructure for international financial activity
clustered in a single city, as they are at present in London.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Comment: Large economies of agglomeration. But caveat that the hub is sensibly regulated and not prone to collusion.
Question B: All else equal, Britain’s rules on hiring, firing and working hours are significantly more conducive to financial activity than those in other large European countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Comment: Ratio of value of flexibility to that of working terms regulation is relatively high in finance. UK is somewhat freer than most of EU.
Question A: Setting the EU rules aside, and assuming it would take 2.5% of Italy’s GDP to recapitalize its banks, the Italian government would improve financial stability in Europe if it injected this amount of public funds into its banks.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
9
Agree
7
Comment: Banks have far too little capital so more is good. But another bail out would go backwards on incentives. A total mess, not only Italy.
Question B: If Italy were to inject public funds into its banks without imposing losses on at least some claimants, an important cost would be the effect on future incentives (economic or political) in Europe.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
8
Comment: A 100% bail-out after 8 years of "reform" would take us back to square one on TBTF.
Question A: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Comment: Brexit is v probably (but not certainly) bad for trade and investment. The £ drop reflects this but is an efficient way to be worse off..
Question B: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Comment: Trade uncertainty bad for EU too. Necessary EU reforms less likely without UK.
In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: Curbing externalities while raising revenue is doubly good. But charging system may itself have cost.
On the whole, the shift from state to private ownership of many industrial assets in central and eastern European countries after communism has increased productivity in those countries.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
7
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: Gains have come from pro-market reforms more generally, but privatization was a pre-condition.
Question A: Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Strongly Agree
8
Question B: Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Question A: Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a country typically generates domestic benefits that outweigh the costs to the country providing the incentives.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: Risks of over-estimating value of inducing location and of 'overpaying' for it.
Question B: Europe as a whole benefits when European cities or countries compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.
Question A: Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Vote
Confidence
Median Survey Vote
Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
8
Question B: Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.