Fabrizio Zilibotti image

Fabrizio Zilibotti

62 Votes

Yale University

  • New Haven, CT

About

  • Tuntex Professor of International and Development Economics
  • President of the European Economic Association (2016)
  • Yrjö Jahnsson Award in Economics (2009)
  • Co-Editor of Econometrica (2015-2019)

Voting History

Europe

Inequality

Question A: The increasing share of income and wealth among the richest people in a number of advanced countries is giving significantly more political power to the wealthy.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
6
Question B: The increasing share of income and wealth among the richest people in a number of advanced countries is having a significantly negative effect on intergenerational social mobility.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
6
Question C: The increasing share of income and wealth among the richest people in a number of advanced countries is a major threat to capitalism.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Europe

Energy Costs

Question A: A windfall tax on the excess profits of large oil and gas companies – with the revenue rebated to households – would be an efficient way to provide temporary relief for the average household in European countries from rising energy costs.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: Fiscal measures putting a cap on consumer energy prices would be a more appropriate immediate response to increased inflation in the euro area than raising interest rates.
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Did Not Answer
Strongly Disagree
8
Europe

Stablecoins

Stablecoins that are not fully backed by either central bank reserves or government securities with minimal price volatility are inherently vulnerable to runs.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Europe

Energy Sanctions

High tariffs imposed by the European Union on imports of Russian natural gas would be an effective measure to reduce the flow of revenues to Russia while limiting disruption to supplies to Europe.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
6
Europe

Ranked-Choice Voting

Rather than using second-round runoffs to settle elections in which no candidate wins a first-round majority, the overall preferences of the electorate would be better reflected by using a single round with ranked-choice voting, in which voters are instructed to rank all of the candidates.
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Did Not Answer
Disagree
5
Question A:

Rising energy prices suggest that the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will have to increase interest rates faster than they intended to before the invasion.

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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
8
Question B: Increased public spending by European countries to accommodate larger defense budgets, migration inflows and accelerated investment in alternative energy sources would be better financed mostly through taxes, rather than debt.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question C: Economic damage from the shock to global commodity markets will fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
6
Europe

Ukraine

Question A:

The fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be stagflationary in that it will noticeably reduce global growth and raise global inflation over the next year.

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Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: The economic and financial sanctions already implemented will lead to a deep recession in Russia.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question C: Targeting the Russian economy through a total ban on oil and gas imports carries a high risk of recession in European economies.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
6
Question D: Weaponizing dollar finance is likely to lead to a significant shift away from the dollar as the dominant international currency.
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Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Europe

Crypto Assets

Question A:

High volatility in the prices of crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum largely reflects movements in investor sentiment rather than news about potential sources of fundamental value (such as possible applications, or use in illicit transactions).

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Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: Given existing regulation of the financial system, as crypto assets grow in value and become more connected to the rest of the system, the fluctuations in their valuations will pose a serious risk to financial stability in advanced economies.
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Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question C: Private unbacked crypto assets serve no important economic purpose.
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Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Europe

Global Supply Chains

Question A:

Firms’ incentives to reduce costs by sourcing inputs and products abroad have caused many European industries to become more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.

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Did Not Answer
Agree
6
Question B: Private firms have inadequate incentives to make investments to reduce the risk that disruptions in the supply of imports will cause shortages and raise domestic prices.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question C: Prioritisation of efficiency over resilience in global supply chains makes current disruptions likely to continue beyond 2022.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Europe

European Chips Act

Question A:

Given the centrality of semiconductors to the manufacturing of many products, securing reliable supplies should be a key strategic objective of EU and national policy.

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Did Not Answer
Agree
5
Question B: Europe’s small role in global semiconductor production is a direct result of insufficient private investment in high-tech innovation.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question C: Public support at EU and national level for investment along the value chain for semiconductors, including production, would be the most effective way to ensure security of supply.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Europe

Omicron

Question A:

Even without renewed Covid-19 restrictions, uncertainty about the health threat from the Omicron variant is likely to deliver a significant hit to economic activity from now through the first half of 2022.

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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question B: If world vaccine supply continues to be limited, global social welfare would rise by more if those vaccines were made widely available across Africa (with support for effective delivery) rather than accelerating booster vaccinations in rich countries.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
5
Question C: Imposing travel bans on countries where new Covid-19 variants are discovered will make it less likely that countries will reveal new variants to the rest of the world.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question A: Voluntary national targets are unlikely to be an effective mechanism for achieving sharp reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
6
Question B: Agreement on a significant global price floor for all carbon emissions would be an effective step towards achieving sharp reductions in emissions.
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Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Question C: Green innovation in the private sector would be strongly stimulated by a substantial increase in public spending on R&D for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
6
Question A: The introduction of natural experiments to economic analysis of the labor market and related areas has led to a more precise understanding of cause and effect.
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Agree
8
Agree
8
Question B: The ‘credibility revolution’ in empirical economics has improved our understanding of a number of public policy issues, including education, immigration and the minimum wage.
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Agree
8
Agree
8
Question C: In pursuit of credible research designs, researchers often seek good answers instead of good questions.
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Agree
10
Uncertain
6
Europe

Climate Reporting Mandate

Question A: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures (such as their greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint) would provide financially material information that enables investors to make better decisions.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: A mandate for public companies to provide climate-related disclosures would induce them to reduce their climate impact significantly.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question A: The current combination of US fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
6
Disagree
6
Question B: Current EU and national fiscal policy plans are likely to leave European output below potential a year from now.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
7
Europe

Open Economies

Question A:

The introduction of even small trade frictions between neighboring countries can result in significant economic damage, particularly to smaller exporting firms.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
6
Question B: A national economic boom based on natural resources is likely to harm other sectors of the economy, particularly manufacturing firms.
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Agree
7
Agree
6
Question A: A global minimum corporate tax rate would limit the benefits to companies of shifting profits to low-tax jurisdictions without biasing where they invest.
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Agree
9
Agree
7
Question B: An international tax system in which the major advanced economies set a minimum rate on corporate income is achievable.
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Uncertain
5
Agree
7
Question C: A global corporate tax system that is based on the location of final consumers would be more efficient than one based on the location of corporate headquarters and production facilities.
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Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Question A: Under a fixed exchange rate and fully liberalized capital flows, a country loses domestic control of monetary policy.
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Agree
5
Agree
8
Question B: For emerging and developing economies open to the world capital market, a flexible exchange rate confers little advantage over a pegged exchange rate in terms of economic stability.
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Agree
5
Disagree
6
Question C: The key feature making the US a more natural optimum currency area than the euro area is higher labor mobility.
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Uncertain
5
Disagree
8
Question A: Reliable Covid-19 vaccines will reach developing countries more quickly if the rich countries pay the pharmaceutical companies at prevailing prices to manufacture and distribute the vaccines (or to license production and support licensees), rather than waiving patent protection.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
6
Question B: The benefits to the US, Canada, Europe, Japan and other rich countries of paying for 12 billion doses of Covid vaccines at prevailing prices and providing them for free to the rest of the world exceed the costs that the rich countries would incur.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question A: The Bank for International Settlements defines a central bank digital currency as follows: ‘In simple terms, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would be a digital banknote. It could be used by individuals to pay businesses, shops or each other (a 'retail CBDC'), or between financial institutions to settle trades in financial markets (a ‘wholesale CBDC').

For developed countries, a central bank digital currency that is available to the public at large would offer social benefits that exceed the associated costs or risks.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question B: Central banks that do not introduce their own digital money risk losing the ability to conduct effective monetary policy.
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Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Question C: The introduction of a central bank digital currency is unlikely to have major effects on the economy.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question A: Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would substantially improve availability of the vaccines in developing countries.
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Agree
10
Uncertain
5
Comment: This is the usual dilemma: ex-post it would be desirable to renege on IPR.
Question B: Removing intellectual property protections on Covid-19 vaccines would have a negative impact on vaccine development efforts for future variants of SARS-CoV-2 or for the next pandemic.
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Agree
10
Agree
6
Comment: This is also true. Ex-ante one wants to promise rents to innovating firms.
Question C: Without an international agreement that facilitates vaccine trade, countries’ incentives to limit exports of vaccines and/or key production inputs are likely to prolong the adverse effects of the pandemic in advanced countries.
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Agree
10
Agree
7
Comment: With virus circulation in poor countries, new variants will keep developing, eventually harming also rich nations with vaccines.
Europe

Short Selling

Question A: Allowing short selling of financial securities, such as stocks and government bonds, leads to prices that, on average, are closer to their fundamental values.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: Requiring investors to disclose short positions in a stock at the equivalent threshold as they are required to do for long positions would result in significantly less short selling.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question C: Regulatory restrictions on short selling - such as no naked shorts, temporary bans in times of crisis - make it difficult for optimists and pessimists to have equal influence on asset prices.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Europe

Vaccines in Europe

Question A: EU Covid-19 vaccination efforts are significantly behind those of Israel, Serbia, the UK and the US.

Offering substantially higher prices per dose would have resulted in larger capacity investments by vaccine makers and accelerated distribution in Europe significantly.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
5
Question B: In the current situation, paying for more production capacity would be better than offering higher prices for vaccines.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
5
Question C: If the EU started paying prices above 100 euros per dose, it would on net reduce the cost of the pandemic to the EU via more lives saved and shorter lockdowns.
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Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Europe

Tackling Obesity

Question A: Policies that aim to reduce obesity by increasing incentives for physical activity would be more welfare-improving than policies that increase the financial costs of consuming calories.
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Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Question B: A ban on advertising junk foods (those that are high in sugar, salt and fat) would be an effective policy to reduce child obesity.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
5
Question C: Setting targets for schools to reduce obesity (e.g. by diverting financial resources to improve school meals or add cookery to the curriculum) would reduce social welfare because schools in deprived areas, where obesity is higher, are already struggling to deliver the core curriculum.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
5
Europe

The US Minimum Wage

Question A: The current US federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour. States can choose whether to have a higher minimum - and many do.


A federal minimum wage of $15 per hour would lower employment for low-wage workers in many states.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Question B: A federal minimum wage that is pegged to state and/or local conditions such as the cost of living would be preferable to the current arrangements that give states a role in setting the policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Uncertain
6
Europe

After Brexit

Question A: The UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it would have been if the country had remained in the European Union.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Question B: The aggregate economy of the 27 countries still in the EU is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than if the UK had not left.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Uncertain
6
Europe

Antitrust Action

Requiring Facebook to divest WhatsApp and Instagram is likely to make society better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Agree
6
Europe

Personnel Economics

Question A: Our understanding of labor productivity has been much enhanced by accounting for monetary and promotion-based incentives within firms and related selection effects.
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Did Not Answer
Agree
6
Question B: Large salaries for senior business executives are less a reflection of an individual’s current contribution to a firm’s overall performance than a ‘prize’ for those who put in the effort to achieve one of the top positions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Europe

Wealth Taxes

Question A: A wealth tax would be an effective way to reduce inequality.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
7
Question B: A wealth tax in a form discussed in the UK (where individuals could be taxed a percentage of their net worth over £750,000, excluding any personal pension savings and their main home) would be an effective way to improve public finances after the Covid-19 crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Uncertain
7
Question C: A public policy goal that could be accomplished with a well-enforced wealth tax could be accomplished at lower cost with modifications to existing taxes, such as income tax, capital gains tax, inheritance tax and property tax.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Uncertain
6
Question A: Google's dominance of the market for internet search arose mainly from a combination of economies of scale and a quality algorithm.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
6
Question B: In light of Google’s dominance, its current operating practices could have a substantial negative effect on social welfare in the long run.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Question C: The nature of the market dominance of technology giants in the digital economy warrants either the imposition of some kind of regulation or a fundamental change in antitrust policy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
6
Europe

Auction Theory

The practical application of auction theory to the licensing of rights to use public assets like radiospectrum and other natural resources has generated substantially higher government revenues and better allocative efficiency worldwide than would have happened under previous arrangements.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
8
Strong competition from foreign producers is likely to encourage greater private sector expenditure on research and development in the home market.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Uncertain
7
Question A: The ECB should aim to achieve an inflation rate that averages 2% over time.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
8
Question B:
The ECB should take account of the environmental implications of its policy decisions.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question C: The objectives set for the ECB by Treaty should make maximum sustainable employment of equal importance as price stability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question A: Right now, the central focus of fiscal policy should be on temporary measures to provide protection and promote rapid economic recovery rather than trying to advance other objectives, such as reducing debt, tackling climate change or addressing inequality.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Agree
8
Question B: Cutting taxes on firms (or delaying tax collection) will allow more of them to survive and be more effective than public spending for triggering a rapid economic recovery.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6
Question C: European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should be primarily in the form of grants rather than loans.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
9
Agree
7
Question D: European recovery fund disbursements to crisis-hit countries should not be made on condition of commitments to reform by recipients.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
8
Disagree
8
Question A: Given the social and regulatory pressures to keep prices down for drugs and vaccines to treat Covid-19, the financial incentives for pharmaceutical companies to invest in such products are below the value of the investment to society.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
6
Question B: Government commitments to pay developers and manufacturers above average costs for an effective vaccine or drug treatments for Covid-19 would accelerate production.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
6
Question C: Given the positive externalities from vaccination, an effective Covid-19 vaccine should have priority in public healthcare funding even in countries where other diseases cause more death and disability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Question A: Political conflict plays a key role in shaping economic decisions, policies and outcomes.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
8
Question B: Most European countries have larger social welfare systems than the United States in part because the latter is more heterogeneous by race and ethnicity.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Uncertain
6
Question A: Clearing the market for surgical face masks using prices is detrimental to the public good.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: Laws to prevent high prices for essential goods in short supply in a crisis would raise social welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question C: Governments should buy essential medical supplies at what would have been the market price and redistribute according to need rather than ability to pay.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
6
Question A: Economic damage from the virus and lockdowns will ultimately fall disproportionately hard on low- and middle-income countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
6
Question B: A temporary standstill on sovereign debt payments by low- and middle-income countries to all official and private creditors to give those countries space to cover the immediate costs of the crisis would benefit advanced economies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
6
Question C: Export restrictions on food and medical supplies, and other protectionist measures, are likely to cost lives and slow economic recovery in all countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
7
Question A: Government support to private firms in the form of debt (either directly or with the help of public guarantees) is desirable, but risks leaving them with too much leverage to invest and grow in the future.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Agree
7
Question B: Providing funds to viable businesses in the form of equity injections is a vital complement to debt support.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
7
Question C: With the EU ban on state aid suspended, government capital injections should be provided via a newly created pan-European equity fund, rather than be left to national governments acting independently.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
7
Question A:

Even with the support policies implemented by European governments in response to the crisis, low-income workers will suffer a relatively bigger hit to their incomes than those further up the distribution.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Question B: With schools across Europe closed in the lockdown, existing gaps in access to quality education between high- and low-income households will be exacerbated.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
8
Question C: Combating the effects of the pandemic on inequality should be a priority for policy interventions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
7
Question A: Severe lockdowns – including closing non-essential businesses and strict limitations on people’s movement – are likely to be better for the economy in the medium term than less aggressive measures.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
8
Question B: While national governments have responded to the crisis with substantial economic policy measures, a joint euro area fiscal response is still highly desirable.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Strongly Agree
8
Question C: Given the willingness of the European Central Bank to buy sovereign bonds, including Italian bonds, without limits, there is no need for ‘coronabonds’.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
7
Europe

Coronavirus

Question A: Even if the mortality of COVID-19 proves to be limited (similar to the number of flu deaths in a regular season), it is likely to cause a major recession.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
8
Agree
7
Question B: The economic effects of COVID-19 coming from reduced spending will be larger than those coming from disruptions to supply chains and illness-related workforce reductions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
10
Uncertain
6
Question C: The economic policy institutions of the Eurozone are well equipped to ameliorate the potential economic damage from COVID-19.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
7
Question A: Germany's current account surplus is undesirable even from a purely German viewpoint: the country would be better off if, for example, it ran a smaller primary surplus, in turn leading to a smaller current account surplus.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Question B: The Eurozone would be in better shape if fiscal policy were more expansionary, which would allow monetary policy to be slightly less so.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Question C: If there is a recession in the Eurozone, it will be essential to have a coordinated fiscal expansion.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
8
Europe

The European Green Deal

Question A: The European Union goal of reaching net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 will be a major drag on economic growth.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
9
Disagree
5
Question B: Carbon taxes are a better way to implement climate policy than cap-and-trade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
6
Question C: A carbon border tax targeting imports from non-EU countries with less strict climate policies is likely to harm developing economies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
5
Europe

‘Getting Brexit Done’

Question A: Following the UK election result, the certainty that the country is going to leave the European Union will provide a substantial short-term boost to the UK economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Disagree
7
Question B: Given that the transition period currently expires at the end of 2020, there is still a considerable risk that the UK will leave the European Union without a trade agreement.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Question C: Leaving the European Union without a trade agreement would have a large negative impact on the UK economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Question A: Under current policies on climate change, the associated physical risks (such as those arising from total seasonal rainfall and sea level changes, and increased frequency, severity, and correlation of extreme weather events) will be at most a very small factor in monetary policy decisions over the next decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: The physical risks associated with climate change under current policies are likely to threaten financial stability over the next decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Europe

Research and Development

Question A: Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public R&D spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private R&D spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
3
Uncertain
5
Question B: Europeans would benefit more from an extra €1 billion of public medical research spent through existing (public) channels than from an extra €1 billion of private medical research spent through existing (private) channels, all else equal.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
5
Question A: Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for answering some long unsettled questions in development economics research.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question B: Randomized control trials are a valuable tool for making significant progress in poverty reduction.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Europe

Stakeholder Capitalism

Question A: Having companies run to maximize shareholder value creates significant negative externalities for workers and communities.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question B: Appropriately managed corporations could create significantly greater value than they currently do for a range of stakeholders – including workers, suppliers, customers and community members – with small impacts on shareholder value.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question C:
Effective mechanisms for boards of directors to ensure that CEOs act in ways that balance the interests of all stakeholders would be straightforward to introduce.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Question A:

Rising inequality is straining the health of liberal democracy.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
7
Question B: Enacting more redistributive expenditures and policies would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
7
Question C: European governments should allocate more resources to policies that would be likely to limit the rise of populism in Europe, even if it means higher public debt or lower public spending in other areas.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
7
Question A:

At this point, there is little that the European Central Bank can do to increase or maintain output in the Eurozone.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Uncertain
7
Question B: When the economy is operating below its potential, larger fiscal deficits are likely to increase demand and output.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Question C: When the economy is operating below its potential and monetary policy is at the effective lower bound, fiscal policy should prioritize increasing output over decreasing public debt.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Uncertain
7
Europe

ECB Appointments

Question A:

Selecting candidates for membership of the ECB Executive Board based primarily on nationality ahead of competence is likely to have a negative effect on the quality of monetary policy in the Eurozone.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: Although the central bank can never be an entirely technocratic institution, the selection process for the ECB President and members of the Executive Board is significantly worsened by intergovernmental trade-offs involving appointments to other European institutions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8

On bids for infrastructure projects, the average European would be better off if Europe’s governments favored European firms over Chinese firms (or firms from any other country with non-profit-related geopolitical strategies) — even if it means sometimes choosing a higher-cost bidder.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
9
Disagree
5
Question A: Breaking the “doom loop” — a negative spiral that can result when banks hold sovereign bonds and governments bail out banks — would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: Regulators should try to break the doom loop by assigning positive risk weights — in calculating banks’ capital requirements — to banks’ holdings of domestic and other Eurozone sovereign bonds.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question C: Breaking the doom loop would impose substantial costs on powerful political constituencies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
8
Europe

Gentrification

Residents of big European cities would be better off, on balance, if governments did more to counter gentrification, for example by using rent and other housing subsidies, public housing investments, zoning regulations, or similar policies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Disagree
5
Question A: A common European deposit insurance scheme, once fully implemented, would increase the stability of European economies in the event of another financial crisis.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
Question B: A common European deposit insurance scheme, once fully implemented, would increase the likelihood of another financial crisis in Europe.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Strongly Disagree
8
Question A: Overall, public spending on the arts in Europe creates benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
4
Uncertain
5
Question B: Additional public spending on the arts in Europe would create incremental benefits that exceed the deadweight loss caused by taxation to fund it.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
1
Uncertain
5
Europe

European Champions

Question A: The average European is better off if Europe’s competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Question B: If China and other countries use policies that create giant international firms, then the average European is better off if Europe's competition authorities let firms merge into European champions in their sectors, even it weakens competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
Europe

Quarterly Earnings

Question A: Letting publicly traded European firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on long-term issues in their investments and other decisions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Question B: A switch from quarterly to annual earnings reports would, on net, benefit shareholders of European firms.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
5
Europe

Social Responsibility

Question A: To the extent that public corporations pursue social and environmental initiatives, they tend to achieve higher risk-adjusted (private) returns than otherwise similar corporations that pursue such initiatives less.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Disagree
5
Question B: To the extent that Norway’s global government pension fund makes investments for social and environmental objectives — apart from investments that would bring the highest expected risk-adjusted returns — it improves the welfare of Norwegians.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Agree
5
Europe

EU Fiscal Rules

Question A: The fiscal rules of the European Union should give more flexibility to member countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Uncertain
6
Question B: The Italian budget for 2019 that the European Commission rejected in October would have increased Italy’s risk of fiscal insolvency substantially.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Question C: If France runs a 2019 budget deficit of around 3.4% of GDP, as announced by President Macron’s government, France’s risk of fiscal insolvency will increase substantially.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
6
Disagree
6
Europe

Ride-Sharing Caps

Question A: Capping the number of ride-sharing drivers as is being discussed in New York City, Chicago and London will make the average resident in that city worse off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
7
Question B:
To achieve a given level of congestion, it would be better to use taxes for driving that vary based on the level of congestion, rather than limiting the number of ride-sharing vehicles.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
8
People who migrated to Europe between 2015 and 2018 are likely — over the next two decades — to contribute more in taxes paid than they receive in benefits and public services.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Uncertain
6
Comment: For demographic reasons.
Europe

Increasing Returns

Ideas are nonrival, so increasing returns to scale is an essential feature of technological change in a market economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
7
Voters overestimate the effect that current governments have on their economies’ concurrent economic performance.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
5
Agree
7
Europe

Autonomous Cars

Over the next decade, autonomous cars will raise average welfare in the EU by at least as much as smartphones have over the past decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
5
Britain’s Labour party recently proposed giving the Bank of England a target of 3% annual labor productivity growth. Consider the following statement:
Central banks cannot significantly increase productivity growth over a ten year horizon, except perhaps by promoting macroeconomic stability.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Europe

Digital Sales Tax

Question A: The European Commission has proposed new rules to ensure that “digital business activities are taxed in a fair and growth-friendly way in the EU”. Consider two statements regarding this proposal:

An EU-wide 3% tax on revenue from digital activities would, on balance, be a good idea.

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Uncertain
5
Question B:
If the EU decides to tax digital service providers, it would be better — given the difficulties of measuring and verifying digital activity — to tax them on the revenue, rather than the profits, that they generate locally.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Uncertain
5
The European Union often uses its antitrust powers to protect EU-based firms from international competition, rather than to promote greater competition in European markets.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Strongly Disagree
6
Europe

China-Europe Trade

Question A: Trade with China makes most Europeans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
8
Question B: Some Europeans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
7
Comment: This is natural, and this is why one needs social policies, retraining programs, fluid labor markets etc. But there are many new jobs too...
Question C: If the EU followed the new US steel tariffs by imposing similar EU tariffs on steel from China, it would improve Europeans’ welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Disagree
10
Strongly Disagree
7
Europe

Greece

Question A: Assuming it exits its third bailout program this summer without an immediate restructuring or other debt relief, Greece is unlikely to default on its sovereign debt in the coming decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: I interpret "default" it as an outright unilateral decision. A different point is whether there there will be haircuts and renegotiations.
Question B: Greece would be better off if it had decided to exit the euro between 2011 and 2015.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
7
Question C: If Greece had defaulted on (or restructured) its private debt in 2010, while also staying within the euro, that combination would have been better for Greece than either exiting the euro or proceeding as it has actually done.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
7
Comment: In 2011, private-sector holders of Greek debt did take a 53% write-down on the value of their holdings.
Europe

Bitcoins

Question A: Bitcoins are more similar to gold than they are to currency.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
7
Question B: Bitcoins are more similar to gold than they are to Dutch tulips in the 1630s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Disagree
6
The US spends roughly 17% of GDP on healthcare, according to the OECD; most European countries spend less than 12% of GDP.

Higher quality-adjusted US healthcare prices contribute relatively more to the extra US spending than does the combination of higher quantity and quality of US care (interpreting quantity and quality to reflect both greater American healthcare needs due to underlying population health and the delivery of more or better healthcare services to Americans).
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Uncertain
6
Over the past two years, all else equal, the appeal of the US as a destination for immigrants has changed in ways that will likely decrease innovation in the US economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
7
Question A:

Holding other policies fixed, the average European would be better off if every European country taxed corporate profits at a rate of 20% (based as closely as possible on a common definition of profits).

Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Disagree
6
Question B: If other policies were held fixed and every European country taxed corporate profits at a common rate of 20%, then reducing that common rate substantially below 20% would make the average European better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Strongly Disagree
6
Europe

Board Quotas for Women

Question A: All else equal, if corporations throughout Europe set quotas for a minimum number of women board members, the shareholder value of European companies would increase.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
5
Question B: Taking into account the likely effects on investments in human capital by men and women, setting quotas throughout Europe for a minimum number of women board members would generate substantial net benefits for Europeans.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Uncertain
5
Europe

Energy Sources

Question A: Subsidizing renewable energy sources is better than taxing fossil fuels, assuming the subsidy or tax would be set at levels that would reduce carbon emissions by an equivalent amount.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
8
Disagree
6
Question B: Germany’s solar-energy subsidies to date have produced net social benefits for Germany.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Disagree
5
Question C: Solar-energy subsidies to date in Germany and other countries have produced net social benefits for the world.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
No Opinion
Uncertain
5
Europe

Behavioral Economics

Insights from psychology about individual behavior – examples of which include limited rationality, low self-control, or a taste for fairness – predict several important types of observed market outcomes that fully-rational economic models do not.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Agree
8
Europe

Refugees in Germany

The influx of refugees into Germany beginning in the summer of 2015 will generate net economic benefits for German citizens over the succeeding decade.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Question A: Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in advanced countries who are unemployed for long periods.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Uncertain
6
Question B: Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in advanced countries is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Did Not Answer
Agree
6
Europe

Ride Sharing

Question A: Consumers will be better off, on balance, if European cities treat firms that provide ride-sharing platforms (such as Uber) as substantively different from taxi firms, and thus not necessarily warranting the same regulation.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Comment: Question is ambiguous. Regulation should be relaxed but the same for all operators.
Question B: Assuming that taxi and ride-sharing companies were treated as substantively similar — including requirements that they operate on an equal footing regarding safety, insurance and taxation — letting ride-sharing services compete without restrictions on prices or routes would raise consumer welfare.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
10
Agree
7
Question C: Regardless of how ride-sharing services are treated, existing regulations for traditional taxi firms in many European cities harm consumers by limiting competition.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
7
Question A: Revising France’s labor market policies — by reducing employment protection, decentralizing labor negotiations to the firm level, and making training programs more accessible and responsive to labor demands — would, all else equal, increase productivity in France’s economy.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Question B: Reducing employment protection would reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate in France.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
7
Europe

ECB Asset Purchases

Question A: The ECB's asset purchases over the past two years have reduced the threat of deflation in the euro area as a whole.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Agree
7
Question B: If the economic outlook in the euro area becomes less favorable, then increasing the ECB's asset purchase program (in size or duration) would substantially increase the euro area's economic growth over the following five years.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Uncertain
5
Uncertain
6
Europe

Diversified Investing

In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Strongly Agree
9
Europe

Aging

Question A: Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
7
Question B: In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
7
Agree
8
Europe

City of London

Question A: All else equal, there are substantial advantages to having much of Europe’s human capital and infrastructure for international financial activity clustered in a single city, as they are at present in London.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
7
Question B: All else equal, Britain’s rules on hiring, firing and working hours are significantly more conducive to financial activity than those in other large European countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
9
Agree
7
Europe

Italy’s Banks

Question A: Setting the EU rules aside, and assuming it would take 2.5% of Italy’s GDP to recapitalize its banks, the Italian government would improve financial stability in Europe if it injected this amount of public funds into its banks.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
5
Agree
7
Question B: If Italy were to inject public funds into its banks without imposing losses on at least some claimants, an important cost would be the effect on future incentives (economic or political) in Europe.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
8
Agree
8
Europe

Brexit

Question A: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
6
Agree
8
Comment: Expected negative effects on trade and integration, and loss of London as a financial center. Uncertain counterfactual: will there be EU?.
Question B: Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Agree
7
Comment: UK will suffer more tan the EU in economic terms. UK was no constructive partner in institution building.
Europe

Congestion Pricing

In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Strongly Agree
8
On the whole, the shift from state to private ownership of many industrial assets in central and eastern European countries after communism has increased productivity in those countries.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
9
Strongly Agree
8
Europe

Trade Within Europe

Question A: Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Strongly Agree
8
Comment: Competition, lower prices, more innovation
Question B: Freer movement of goods and services across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
7
Comment: At best true for very specific sectors of labor market (e.g., construction).
Europe

Local Tax Incentives

Question A: Giving tax incentives to specific firms to locate operations in a country typically generates domestic benefits that outweigh the costs to the country providing the incentives.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Agree
3
Uncertain
6
Question B: Europe as a whole benefits when European cities or countries compete with each other by giving tax incentives to firms to locate operations in their jurisdictions.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
7
Disagree
7
Europe

Migration Within Europe

Question A: Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made the average western European citizen better off since the 1980s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Strongly Agree
10
Agree
8
Comment: Mobility from South to North important for cushioning crisis.
Question B: Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Vote Confidence Median Survey Vote Median Survey Confidence
Disagree
4
Disagree
6
Comment: True, at best, for specific sectors of the labor market (construction in rich countries). Sorry, I answered this to previous in error...