Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Is there still a debate on this question? This is the third Nobel in behavioral economics after all (Kahneman, Schiller, & Thaler)!

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
I'm not aware of any evidence that says that immigration has longrun domestic costs  though it may impose shortterm adjustment costs.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
It's not impossible, but I'm not so far seeing the evidence that "that this time is different."

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  9 
Panelist meant to strongly agree (question misread). Though these techs will almost surely ↑ GDP, losers almost surely won’t be compensated.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Fortunately, we haven't had much productivity growth in manufacturing  so not much wage pressure. :}

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Not a shred of evidence that U.S. tax cuts pay for themselves.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 
I'm not sure it should be called a 'plan' b/c it's so devoid of content. But absent offsetting tax increases, it would be a fiscal disaster

Strongly Disagree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
I'm reasonably persuaded by Auerbach and HoltzEakin, but I'm not certain that U.S. currency will fall oneforone with the border tax

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
If dollar does not lose value to fully offset tax, then yes, consumer prices will rise.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Nils Bohr

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
CBO has a good track record with a very difficult assignment. It errs, but not systematically or with partisan intent.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 
H1B workers are mostly highpaid employees at profitable firms. Cutting H1Bs will reduce profits and total wage payments and therefore taxes

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 
H1Bs may slightly depress wages for highskill workers. But they don't lower total jobs and they likely raise total profits and wages.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Hmm, Is this the most pressing economic issue of the moment? I wouldn't have thought so...

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  4 
Some policies likely to boost growth, at least temporarily. Others likely to suppress it. Hard to say!

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
Alongside bad military advice, bad economic advice has harmed many nations, citizens and presidents. A CEA head should know some economics!

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
Many of these actions will make the average American poorer over the long run. Whether the long run arrives within 10 years is uncertain.

Strongly Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Policies that raise import prices, deregulate dirty industries, and launch big infrastructure projects will boost noncollege wages and jobs

Strongly Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 
Taxing consumers to subsidize domestic production is bad economics and a violation of the WTO agreement.

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Labor demand curves are generally downward sloping

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Much U.S. wealth comes from innovation, and foreignborn STEM workers are a huge contributor to that efffort

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Like the mortgage interest deduction, the federal tax subsidy to employerprovided health insurance plans causes excess consumption.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
The U.S. has lead the world in measuring and understanding its own economy. Willfully blinding ourselves would be a step towards darkness

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
BLS data are at the heart of good policy in both the public and private sectors. It's a bargain relative to the public and private value.

Strongly Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Growing competition from China and Mexico has cost many manufacturing jobs in Ohio and Michigan. Weak negotiations are not the cause.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
Just another day's work for Ken Arrow

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  1 

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Once unraveling begins, it decreases both the benefits of staying and costs of exiting for the next ambivalent country.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 

Disagree  6 
Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on longterm issues in their investments and other decisions.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
It's imperfect and can be refined, but there's no question this approach contains useful predictive info.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
It's an okay start, but one could do much better! Why use a binary measure?

Uncertain  5 
Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  6 
First result from Oregon study: People with health insurance use more healthcare

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
That's just a prior. No evidence yet

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
I don't think the evidence supports the bold prediction that employment will be substantially lower. Not impossible, but no strong evidence.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
If it had any net positive effect, it would likely be very modest.

Disagree  5 
The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Disagree  5 
Behavior in many complex and seemingly intractable strategic settings can be understood more clearly by working out what each party in the game will choose to do if they realize that the other parties will be solving the same problem. This insight has helped us understand behavior as diverse as military conflicts, price setting by competing firms and penalty kicking in soccer.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Many ambiguous predictions, but broad insights of game theory are relevant to infinite # of domains.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
I think it's more likely than not given secular improvements in healthcare, longevity, technology, and air quality.

Agree  7 
Californians would be better off on average if all final users in the state paid the same price for water — adjusted for quality, place and time — even if, as a result, some food prices rose sharply and some farms failed.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
Does not have to bankrupt farmers: they can be given water rights to resell. Coase Theorem applies.

Agree  7 
The Fed should wait until its preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is clearly rising — and not just forecast to rise — before it begins hiking interest rates.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Tight labor markets raise many boats. Don't let the tide out prematurely.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
I would agree if I were certain that governors had their states' long term interests in mind when cutting tax deals. Not sure that's true.

Disagree  5 
Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Well duh!

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
We're still debating the impact of TFRA 86 on economic growth. Clearly, our confidence intervals are infinite for these predictions.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  6 
I feel that this type of projection is unwise: firstorder impacts on policy but almost zero reliability. And it invites gaming.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
Only if you include agency problems among the "standard forces" of supply and demand.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Not a lot of impulse spending among economists by my observation. You can charge them a lot for WiFi however.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
Perhaps in the very short run, but not in equilibrium.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  10 
In general, Amazon is not using its monopsony to reduce supply. But in the case of Hachette books, it certainly is.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Intervention could be as simple as a stern warning. At present, Amazon is heading towards a market position that is anticompetitive.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  9 
Not clear yet if wealth inequality has risen in U.S: different data sources give different answers. Premature to identify cause of nonfact!

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  4 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8  Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8  Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Can never be certain, but evidence suggests that ARRA was effective in preventing the Great Recession from being even more calamitous.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Preserving the Fed's autonomy is valuable. Imagine if Congress had been running the Fed during the Financial Crisis  certain disaster!

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  5 

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
I believe it in theory but I'm aware of no direct evidence after all these years.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Net neutrality is a fiction. Hire Akamai (et al.) to mirror your servers worldwide to speed content to your users. One user: Healthcare.gov!
see background information here 
Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  1 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
Not a good experiment, but sanctions appear effective sometimes, e.g., Iran, South Africa.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 
Not enough info to answer. Not in favor of a kidney market that sells to highest bidder. Other ideas maybe. Question is not actionable.

Uncertain  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Temporarily yes. Over the long run, no. Labor force participation has risen throughout most of the 20th century.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Technology and trade/globalization are probably two largest factors. Would also include deunionization.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
That's a ridiculously high bar to cross, since no other period in human history has ever seen anything like the last 150 years!

Uncertain  6 
Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
This is hearsay because I don't "do" monetary policy. But everything I've read says that Ben was extraordinarily creative and effective.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Amazing that more things aren't price this way  they should be.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  10 
Are you serious? Presents serve multiple interpersonal purposes. Revealed preference indicates that income transfer is not the primary one.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  10 

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
College remains an excellent investment for most students, and the federal government is the appropriate lender for most borrowers.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
No question that this is effective. Whether it's Pareto improving is open to debate.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
This would primarily be a transfer from gas producers to U.S. industries and consumers. Welfare losses would probably be second order.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
Some will have low returns, of course. But the mean and median rate of return will likely be favorable.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Taxpayers subsidize too much nonmeritorious activity through the tax writeoff. Tax liability should not fall 1for1 with charitable giving

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
This is generically true, but we don't the threshold where it matters. And not clearly true for countries that borrow in their own currency.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
When countries adopt beggarthyneighbor trade/currency policies, bilateral trade agreements are a powerful tool for disciplining behavior

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Contemporary research has not reproduced the miracles seen in Perry, Abecedarian and Early Learning.

Uncertain  4 
Raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour would make it noticeably harder for lowskilled workers to find employment.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
I'm not aware of any strong evidence demonstrating this result.

Uncertain  5 
The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to lowskilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Decades of research on the minimum wage in the U.S. find that the distortionary effects are quite small.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
The question contains its own answer.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 
Targeted sectoral subsidies almost always a special interest boondoggle. And why does small business helps average citizen more than large?

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Not certain that inflation faced by elderly corresponds perfectly to inflation faced by urban wage earners and clerical workers.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Taxing negative externalities reduces economic distortions; taxing labor creates them. This is the tax equivalent of a free lunch!

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
With or w/o Medicare, it's hard to do a budget that fixes federal deficits over 10 yrs. But ignoring Med makes it easier than it should be!

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Rising health care costs are the greatest threat to U.S. fiscal solvency (that we know of) looking over multiple decades.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Long term unemployed workers are costly; many collect SSDI. Aiding GM was likely a cost effective welfare/employment program, all else aside

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Putting costs aside, this is almost certainly true since many displaced workers would not have found reemployment by now in bad economy.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  6 
The economic benefits to the U.S. of having a
handful of banks with balance sheets greater than $1 trillion are small.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Holding wages constant, manufacturing jobs appeal more to noncollege males, the group whose employment rate is falling most rapidly.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
Unclear if R&D credits induce R&D at the margin or mostly reward inframarginal R&D. I prefer govt fund basic research directly (NIH, NSF).

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Obamacare is a risky step into the unknown; The alternative of vouchercare is a faithbased exercise, already disproved by the evidence.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
There is no evidence that private sector is more effective at healthcare cost control than public sector. Privatization only shifts costs.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
See work of Diamond and Saez in JEP: The Case for a Progressive Tax: From Basic Research to Policy Recommendations
see background information here 
Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
My fear is that the distortions from relabeling the potential gains from lower capital taxes in the second best world in which we live.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Main reasons: diffs in social prefs and differ in priors about "elasticity" of responses to taxes + regs. Most agree on signs not magnitudes

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
See the persuasive article by Robert NovyMarx and Joshua Rauh in the Journal of Economic Perspectives in 2009.
see background information here 
Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  10 
This is always and everywhere true.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Even if inflationary
pressures rise substantially as a result of quantitative easing and low
interest rates, the Federal Reserve has ample tools to rein inflation back in
if it chooses to do so.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
FM Scherer did a cogent analysis of the Sugar Quota system as a Harvard Kennedy School case many years ago.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
See Deming, Goldin and Katz 2012 in Journal of Economic Perspectives
see background information here 
Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Unlikely to have an impact, but worth evaluating!

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Papers by Goolsbee, Ellison and Ellison, and Einav and Levin show that this is unambiguously correct.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
The mixture of rising government spending on healthcare and extremely low U.S. taxrates is unsustainable.

Agree  8 
Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Not aware of any evidence in recent history where tax cuts actually raise revenue. Sorry, Laffer.

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  9 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Please see my paper with David Dorn and Gordon Hanson, "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Impacts of Import Competition in the U.S."
see background information here 
Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  4 
Maybe top colleges set a price at whatever insurer (or government lender) will pay then charge a copay to extract remaining surplus...

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Nevertheless, I'd rather go over the 'fiscal cliff' than renew our irresponsible and unsustainable spenddon'ttax policies.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 
Natural gas prices will fall, but this may affect world price as much as U.S. price. Not sure whether U.S. production affects U.S. price.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Cuba is stuck in the 1950s primarily due to its internal policies not external constraints.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Lifespans are getting substantially longer. Working lives must get somewhat longer too to cover the cost of decadeslong retirements.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
Raising employer costs does not create more employment.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
It's generally efficient to use the price mechanism to allocate scarce goods, e.g., umbrellas on a rainy day. Banning this is unwise.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Giving TSA officers discretion is a good idea; simply randomizing some procedures does not prevent terrorists learning

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  6 
Worry: only families willing to supplement the public subsidy would get excellent education for their kids. This is what happens in Chile.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
That's one drawback but not necessarily the main one. I'm worried about equilibrium quality of schools that don't charge topups.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  8 
Not sure how to compare the gains to consumers with long run effects on employment. They might both be positive!

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
NAFTA was small potatoes relative to rising China trade. My hunch is that both costs and benefits were modest.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Lots of evidence that occupational licensing is excessive. But I cannot speak specifically about the medical profession.
see background information here 
Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Uncertain  6 
Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Rent control discourages supply of rental units. Incumbent renters benefit from capped prices. New renters face reduced rental options.

Disagree  6 
The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 

Uncertain  4 
Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a nonbinding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
I weakly disagree. I suspect that this requirement is ineffective  so it silences some critics without solving any agency problems.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
It's not the only factor. Two others: slowing supply of skilled workers, and (probably) distorted paysetting at the very top.

Agree  7 
If the US replaced
its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard,
defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the
pricestability and employment outcomes would be better for the average
American.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  4 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
See "The High Cost of Free Parking" by Donald Shoup
see background information here 
Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
See Chris Knittel's forthcoming paper in Journal of Economic Perspectives on this topic: Reducing Petroleum Consumption from Transportation

Strongly Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
See AER paper by Carlos Dobkin and Nancy Nicosi on price effects of the U.S. government's disruption of the methamphetamine market
see background information here 
Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Marijuana is less dangerous than alcohol. Criminal enforcement for minor marijuana infractions is a waste of societal resources.

Agree  5 
Credible assumptions for
inflation, GDP growth and primary budget deficits in Italy imply that either
the DebttoGDP ratio in Italy would increase sharply if Italian
interest rates on 10year government debt remained at the November 30
level of around 7 percent or Italy would lose access to the bond
market.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  6 
Absent outside help to deal
with runs, such as a pledge of fiscal support from Germany or an unlimited
commitment by the ECB to buy bonds, there is no spendingandtax plan
Italy can announce that would be credible enough
to hold its interest rates low enough to stabilize its
DebttoGDP ratio.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  8 
We need consumers of healthcare to be *less* insulated from the price system, not more. The tax credit provides insulation and subsidy!

Strongly Disagree  8 
Federal mandates that
government purchases should be “buy American” unless there are exceptional
circumstances,
such as in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, have a significant positive impact on U.S. manufacturing employment.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  4 
Hard to believe this does much at all. But I'm speaking based on my prior. I've not seen any rigorous analysis.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Experts are generally no better than the rest of us  often worse.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  9 
We were in a bubble. There were not enough future profits in the world to justify those prices.

Disagree  7 
The Chinese government
pursues policies that keep the renminbi's exchange rate vis à vis the dollar
lower than it would be if the currency floated without those policies.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
That is my understanding, but this is secondhand information, not my area of expertise.

Agree  6 
Public school students would receive
a higher quality education if they all had the option of taking the government
money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own
education and turning that money into vouchers that they
could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of
their choice (e.g. charter schools).
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
Maddeningly sweeping! Some students would benefit and the average effect might indeed be positive. But some students would surely be harmed.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
We are nowhere near the downward sloping side of the Laffer curve.

Agree  8 
The cumulative budget shortfalls in the US over the next 10 years can be reduced by half (or more) purely by increasing the federal marginal tax rate on ordinary income for those in the top tax bracket.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
Unfortunately, not enough income there to do it (I think)

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 
1pct increase in real GDP growth is a huge effect! If only it were that easy...

Disagree  4 