Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
For many reasons, the market price does not reflect fundamental Bitcoin value, which in any case is mainly related to avoiding detection.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
This market is so speculative and inefficient that the current price is only weakly related to the expected price in 2 years.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
I would include in this discussion the cases of Japan and China, which have even more severe inverted demographic problems than Europe.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  4 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
A reduced corporate tax reduction is likely to grow GDP. Whether the overall tax plan is distributionally fair is another matter.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  5 
By design, the plan increases debt by $1.5 trillion, net of increasedrevenue effects. That seems to imply that debt to GDP will rise.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  9 
Fiscal measures (e.g. TARP) can and often do reduce the severity of recessions.

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  9 
Starting with no debt, this would be true by definition (although it would be bad policy). Starting with a lot of debt, this could backfire.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Abundant empirical evidence, including results of Thaler, Odean, Kahneman, Tversky, and many others.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  9 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  5 
Despite recent improvements in the economy that reduce the need for fiscal stimulus, better infrastructure is critical to economic growth.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  4 
The total size of the deficit is not irrelevant. For example, critical noninfrastructure spending could be crowded out by politics.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  2 

Strongly Disagree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
I am assuming that trade retaliation and changes in foreign exchange prices are not big enough within three years to overcome the effect.

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  1 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Even if there is no impact on beforetax profits, stock market investors generally believe that corporate tax rates will drop a lot.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Yes, investors do seem to perceive this, from commentary. The degree to which it will happen cannot be predicted with as much confidence.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  1 
The better economists, on average, are probably those publishing in peer refereed journals. But I don't have evidence for that to cite!

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  2 

Strongly Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 

Strongly Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  2 

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  3 

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
The shortrun story is supplyversusdemand. In the long run, highskill immigration could perhaps increase demand for highskill workers,

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Labor of this type is a key factor input that is apparently not in plentiful supply. More of it would likely raise percapita GDP.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Main factors: lost trade in goods and services, especially for London City, coupled with delayed investment due to policy uncertainty.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Factors: lost trade in goods and services, increased EUexistential uncertainty, and reduced UK moderating influence on policy choices.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  1 
A lot of low to mid income workers would have had no jobs absent the Fed's policy. This is a first order impact on the 9010 income spread.

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  10 
But it's not smart. Banning financial firms also lowers fiinancial systemic risk, but does not serve economic welfare. Use capital regs.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  10 
A 4% cap might be OK for now, but too low later, causing distortions. Require instead higher minimum capital ratios for larger banks.

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  6 

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  6 

Strongly Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  1 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
This is a 1950 theorem of Kenneth Arrow. "A Difficulty in the Concept of Social Welfare" Journal of Political Economy.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  9 
Speculators just don't have enough capital to hold oil prices artificially high, or low, for months at a time.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Depending on implementation details, an exit would increase barriers and frictional costs for intraEuropean commerce.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
With much uncertainty on magnitudes, the value of remaining in the EU depends positively on the set of EU members, a complementarity effect.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  9 
True because it's already happened! Growth is down. Consumption is up.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
The FOMC should raise, given no big interim adverse shocks, to mitigate inflation risk. The macro vital signs look healthy enough now.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
It's been a close call. That the tradeoffs favored an earlier exit was not clear. Inflation was too low. Job creation was moderately good.

Disagree  6 
Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on longterm issues in their investments and other decisions.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Although teachingtothetest is bad practice, I anticipate a positive correlation between teaching quality and testscore improvement.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Yes, that seems right, but perhaps the answer changes for prehistoric societies.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 

Uncertain  5 
Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
It's hard to believe that spending per person receiving services will go down enough to offset the number of people getting health care.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
The resulting gains include better health for newly covered, and fewer preventable highcost diseases to treat. The total should be enough.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
Because of labor market frictions and given the high propensity of lowincome workers to consume, the effect is uncertain to me..

Disagree  5 
The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  8 
YES (lowering the chance of a needed devaluation) and NO (greater economic chaos and less structural reform) are both very bad for Greeks.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Yes, but it seems rare in practice that conditions support both detection of the strategy and effectiveness of the strategy by the "abuser".
see background information here 
Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 
America's cost in lower domestic output may have been recovered through better or cheaper substitutes from Japan.

Disagree  5 
Behavior in many complex and seemingly intractable strategic settings can be understood more clearly by working out what each party in the game will choose to do if they realize that the other parties will be solving the same problem. This insight has helped us understand behavior as diverse as military conflicts, price setting by competing firms and penalty kicking in soccer.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
This conclusion is supported by 65 years of research and many significant concrete applications. Of course, any theory is imperfect.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 

Agree  7 
Californians would be better off on average if all final users in the state paid the same price for water — adjusted for quality, place and time — even if, as a result, some food prices rose sharply and some farms failed.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Pricebased allocation usually works, absent externalities. I'm no expert on water, so open minded to learning what the externalities are.

Agree  7 
The Fed should wait until its preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is clearly rising — and not just forecast to rise — before it begins hiking interest rates.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  9 
As Gretzky said, "skate to where the puck will be." Inflation normally takes time to form, often 2 years or more. The Fed can judge timing.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
If it was not to the benefit of the local government, why would they do it?

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
On its face, this sort of competition is useful. I can imagine that experts on this issue may suggest some unintended related distortions.

Disagree  5 
Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
The word " contagion" and the adverse consequence of disease directly imply the result, logically.

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Strictly speaking, social choice in this setting is not obvious. Here, many benefit significantly at hopefully a small cost by fewer.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
It's a tough tradeoff. A fresh start would help after some forced restructuring of labor markets, the civil service, and tax collection.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  5 

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 
Dynamic scoring: A backoftheenvelope guide,
N. Gregory Mankiw, Matthew Weinzierl, J. Pub. Econ. 2006

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
I thought they had already done this at CBO. If not, the research indicates they should give it a try. The stakes are relatively large.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Just a guess, based on my own experience.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  2 
Most of the students I see seem to have new copies. Stanford may not be the norm.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  4 
Authorpublisher search costs are high. Then, secondhand market aside, the publisher has a monopoly on the title, implying pricing power.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Oil production investment is a negative, but reducing the cost of a raw input nets to positive, unless oil exports heavily dominate imports.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
Sorry  I'm not familiar with the spending habits of auto dealers!

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  6 
There is no conceptual or empirical support for this. It depends on dynamics and discount rates.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Amazon might instead use its market power to reduce its costs, or to limit entry by other suppliers. I need to know more to be confident.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Maybe publishers and authors are those to most benefit from regulatory protection. I would need more information in order to better guess.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  4 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Competition on quality and price helps consumers. We also have some evidence from revealed preference. Uber was popular right away.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Yes, but greater longrun macro instability could be merely due, as for many small countries, to less sizerelated diversification.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Public infrastructure is valuable, and the premise of underspending in this area seems correct. Hence, the conclusion.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
The accounting return to the government would be low, but the total returns, include positive social spillovers, could be moderately good.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
The excess liabilities are large! See the work of Josh Rauh. Something must yield: lower promises, or higher taxes, or both.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 
Lower an input cost and produce at a lower total cost. The statement does not consider the environmental costs, which may be significant.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Usually, when an activity is subsidized, it increases. Inefficiency feedback effects would need to be strong to defeat the direct effect.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
Stimulus of this type was potentially valuable. But I don't know much about the mechanics and efficiency of this particular program.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  9 
A quantitative formula is not flexible in the face of structural changes, and reduces Fed independence too much. Clear goals are enough.

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
Allowing more competition for patent rights is good, but frictions in that market might suggest barring trolls. I'm uncertain.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  5 
The usual incentiveforinnovation justification for patent protection seems to apply here, as in many other markets.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
The creation of creditbased money in this form facilitates payments, serving markets in a basic way that would be hard to replace.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
If all qualities sell at the same price, markets cannot allocate quality efficiently. Works for soap, wine, and haircuts; why not Internet?

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  9 
There is increased demand for many sorts of weak debt. Peripheral EUR sovereigns are in the long run still exposed to structural weaknesses.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  1 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Under strong governance that mitigates exploitation, this market may save lives on mutually consenting terms.

Uncertain  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  1 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Uncertain  6 
Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Strong action as a lender of last resort was essential. This is what central banks do. In this instance, innovation by the Fed was crucial.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  1 
This is basic microeconomics. Pricing different services differently improves the allocation of services, assuming no serious externalities.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
A large benefit is the pleasure of choosing something special for the receiver. Maybe one's handknit socks are more fun to give than cash!

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 
Labor is a valuable factor input. My answer presumes that many of these new workers would be employed. But I'm not confident of that.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  1 
A higher number of workers of the same type seeking jobs would lower their average wages or employment rate, other things equal.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Sounds like a trick question! This one is obvious: diversification is a big benefit, even putting aside fee savings.

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  9 
This depends on whether the audit is used to reduce the discretion of the Fed when acting within its mandate. I would need some specifics.

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  9 
Judging when the marginal cost of "exit" risks exceeds the marginal stimulative benefits is difficult with only the data available to me.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  2 
Treasury markets are directly affected, raising US and other borrowing costs. Recipients of federal payments impaired, with a multiplier

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 
I don't have a way to estimate the magnitude of the loss. It is significant, but could be on either side of the indicated amount.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  9 
Better to allow to devaluation of the currency, promoting exports and not wasting valuable FX reserves, as defense is not likely to succeed.

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
The discountwindow rate represents a subsidy to education. The case for this: (1) credit frictions, and (2) knowledge externalities.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  1 
The effort to opt out raises participation. Is that good? Thats a separate issue.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 
Boosting the short run implies a tradeoff, and a distortion in market incentives for long run efficient savings.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
This sort of restriction distorts prices and allocations from their efficient levels. I see no efficiency offsetting gain.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Some of the returns may be lower than those in the private sector, but it may hard be get needed infrastructure but for the government.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Less distortion, yes, but that is an efficiency issue to be traded off against the distributional effects. I would keep the deduction.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
Bitcoin usefulness is limited mainly by other factors. Currencies can be useful for trade in large part because they are accepted for trade.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
In perfect transparent markets, the market clears at an appropriate yield in one step. In actuality, price discovery involves feedback.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  1 

Uncertain  4 
Raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour would make it noticeably harder for lowskilled workers to find employment.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  4 

Uncertain  5 
The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to lowskilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  4 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Sufficiently extreme monetary policies could have created inflation. The point is whether that would have helped much. Perhaps.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  1 
This is a second chance to gridlock. A budget passed by Congress already authorizes the necessary funding.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  2 
On its face, "small" need not be better. To prioritize implies a loss relative to the unprioritized optimum, barring more information.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
I am not aware of the evidence.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  4 
Pollution is a negative externality. It is hard to argue the same for employment! If $150b per year isn't way too much tax, this is obvious.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  3 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  3 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Absent those bailouts, a depression was much more likely. The moral hazard is now being reduced by new rules, such as for capital.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 
To answer this would require a reliable and detailed quantitative macroeconomic model, or at least expert empirical knowledge.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
The bankruptcy law was circumvented. Absent unstated exigent (e.g. systemic) reasons, upsetting creditor rights is inefficient.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
I am open minded about a size cap, but before taking this action, I think more research should be done on unintended consequences.

Agree  6 
The economic benefits to the U.S. of having a
handful of banks with balance sheets greater than $1 trillion are small.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  8 
The costs, such as "too big to fail" are clear, and changing. The benefits, including easier intermediation of large deals, are non trivial.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 
Its not obvious that this policy addresses an important externality and has low unintended consequences.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 
If the positive R&D externality seems plausible, it makes sense to subsidize. There are some cases in which this has worked (universities).

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
The incentive this creates to recategorize is clear. That this results in a drawback seems right, but less clear to me.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
This seems right on average to me, but does it need to be true under all conditions? Of this I am less confident.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
My anecdotal experience is that economists differ widely on the relative costs of income heterogeneity (equity versus efficiency).

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
The discounting is unrealistically high, so underfunding is understated. Pretty simple. The distortion is large, according to experts.
see background information here 
Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
The estimated shortfall magnitudes are large according to experts like Josh Rauh, and roughly double state indebtedness, adding $3 trillion.
see background information here 
Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
The impact might be small, but "inconsequential" , to me, means "of negligible value." The Fed is doing this for a reason, not for fun.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 
The path of Inflation could be raised moderately over 5 years by this QE. The Fed has said as much, and probably wants a bit more inflation.

Uncertain  5 
Even if inflationary
pressures rise substantially as a result of quantitative easing and low
interest rates, the Federal Reserve has ample tools to rein inflation back in
if it chooses to do so.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  9 
Yes, it clearly has the tools, but will it use them quickly and aggressively, especially given the shortrun cost in jobs? We may find out.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 
This sounds right, although it relies a bit on some knowledge of the chemistry involved, so I am not completely confident.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
It would be pure coincidence if forced substitution of one input for another is efficient. A permit market can give the correct tradeoff.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
An immediate default would have left some Euro zone banks unprepared, and possibly have generated runs. That risk is now reduced.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
More restructuring might help a lot if managed carefully. But I don't see that this this a necessary condition for growth.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
The question leaves no other options for avoiding meltdown. There are other options, including muddling through with ECB support.

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  1 
Economics 101. Lowering the supply (from foreign sources), leads the price to go up. At each price, a tariff lowers the foreign supply.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  1 
Sounds reasonable that loans should not be provided if they are not having a sufficiently good measured impact.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
In 2008, Institutional investors ran, redeeming shares at a dollar each when a risk arose that this might later become impossible.
see background information here 
Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
This would lower the incentive to be the first to run. These runs are destructive.

Uncertain  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
This would lower run risk, analogous to bank capital requirements as a mitigant of depositor runs.
see background information here 
Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 
I don't have the necessary knowledge to handle this one.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 
I don't know whether some states have been consciously "pro on line." I don't follow this policy area.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 
I hardly ever watch television, let alone follow the industry. Sorry!

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  8 
Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Banks runs are often triggered by self fulfulling expectations. A run in Greece could tip expectations toward a run elsewhere.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
This calls for a model. A lower tax rate applied to higher earnings could raise or lower tax revenue, depending on the extent of growth.

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 
These measures could lower growth in 2013; the alternative has projected deficits of 5.3% (vs 1.4%) for many years; that's not good either!

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  1 
The question did not ask whether the associated envirnomental costs are large. I do not know the answer to that question.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 
The embargo is also likely to have been an important factor, and may be partly responsible for sustaining Cuba's internal economic policies.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  4 
This would lower tax revenues, increase retirement benefits, and lower output.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
There are competing effects on the supply and demand for jobs. Lacking knowledge of the availanble research I can't estimate the net effect.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
I'm unsure how the courts will define "unconscionably excessive." Efficient allocation by market prices is good, absent monopoly effects.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 
Sounds like there are possible gains from trade. Although I'm no expert, I don't see the negative externality caused by opening this market.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  8 
Hard to be certain. F and F used cheap funding to massively expand mortgage financing, so may also caused a large impact on mortgage rates.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 
For me, this is a complex subject, ripe with costs and benefits. I hope others have done the research necessary to be confident!

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 
There is the stated cost, and there is the risk of poor active choices, as well as a risk of loss of social cohesion.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  9 
Tbtf implies cheap debt financing of assets. There are other reasons to be big. Big clients often want large deals or onestop shopping.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  9 
Both factors are likely to be present, but we lack sufficient research on magnitudes.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Supply and demand for oil are relatively global. US regulation does, however, have an influence on domestic supplies of some products.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
The "gains" are positive a general additive sense, but that does not avoid costs to some.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 
On "average" is an important qualifier.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
Macro performance depends partly on credit from banks, which would have otherwise been impaired. Europe has a related growth issue now,

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Restricted trade on one side of the market, if binding, by definition prevents matching supply with demand, and thus "fundamental" prices.
see background information here 
Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 
Subsidizing employment leads employment to go up, other things equal. Adverse impacts through growth incentives might take time.

Agree  7 
Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 

Uncertain  6 
Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 

Disagree  6 
The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  4 
Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a nonbinding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
This partial explanation does not lessen the policy importance of addressing the downside effects, including loss of social cohesion.

Agree  7 
If the US replaced
its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard,
defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the
pricestability and employment outcomes would be better for the average
American.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  10 
A time series plot of the price of consumption in ounces of gold, and then in US dollars, clarifies that gold is not a stable standard.

Strongly Disagree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Pricing at marginal value has benefits. A simple version of this is known as the first welfare theorem. The proposal goes toward this.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  2 
The indirect route of fleet fuel standards causes distortions in the auto industry and fails to capture other sources of C02 emissions.

Strongly Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 

Agree  5 
Credible assumptions for
inflation, GDP growth and primary budget deficits in Italy imply that either
the DebttoGDP ratio in Italy would increase sharply if Italian
interest rates on 10year government debt remained at the November 30
level of around 7 percent or Italy would lose access to the bond
market.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  4 
Not necessarily "sharply" in time, but significantly over time, yes, absent some other big structural shift.

Agree  6 
Absent outside help to deal
with runs, such as a pledge of fiscal support from Germany or an unlimited
commitment by the ECB to buy bonds, there is no spendingandtax plan
Italy can announce that would be credible enough
to hold its interest rates low enough to stabilize its
DebttoGDP ratio.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
I am pessimistic, absent outside help, but this is a strong statement that Italy has no way at all to do it on its own. I'm uncertain.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  2 
This seems an indirect approach.

Strongly Disagree  8 
Federal mandates that
government purchases should be “buy American” unless there are exceptional
circumstances,
such as in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, have a significant positive impact on U.S. manufacturing employment.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 
Seems to hard disagree with the statement as posed. But that does not at all mean that this is a good idea!

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
Subsidizing debt increases expected financial distress costs, only some of which are internalized by firms' managers and shareholders.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
Despite attempts, there is no solid empirical evidence or convincing theoretical support for the contrary view.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  9 
Expected cash flows were hard to estimate. See Pastor and Veronesi. An ex ante (1999) poll would be very interesting!
see background information here 
Disagree  7 
The Chinese government
pursues policies that keep the renminbi's exchange rate vis à vis the dollar
lower than it would be if the currency floated without those policies.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Yes, but the situation is not as extreme as was the case a few years ago.

Agree  6 
Public school students would receive
a higher quality education if they all had the option of taking the government
money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own
education and turning that money into vouchers that they
could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of
their choice (e.g. charter schools).
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 
Maybe yes. And maybe those left behind would do worse. The equilibrium could be tough.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  6 
Is the net effect on revenues negative because of the impacts on avoidance and earning efforts? That's not clear, but probably not.

Agree  8 
The cumulative budget shortfalls in the US over the next 10 years can be reduced by half (or more) purely by increasing the federal marginal tax rate on ordinary income for those in the top tax bracket.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  2 
It is a difficult question (for me at least).

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  4 
It is will probably have a positive effect, but 1% of GDP is a lot to expect from a moderate twist.

Disagree  4 