Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
some jobs (and tax revenue) likely to shift overseas for the short run, hard to see how a material increase in taxes would be possible

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
eventually perhaps some americans get hired, but seems more likely that there are shortages and activity moves in the short run

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Full public financing of stadiums is mostly a transfer to the owners

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
Can't be proven one way or another, this is plausible but no way to know for sure

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 
also impossible to know and the horizon that matters for stocks is longer term growth and after tax earnings

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Junk arguments abound in economics. Research experience helps prevent them getting to the President.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
shutting down trade will be bad for most people, the jobs are not coming back, the infrastructure gains might be good

Strongly Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
if lower quality imports are restricted probably hurts the poor more, but as with the first question there are offsetting effects

Strongly Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Voter anger trumps econ considerations, but slowdown is underway and City of London is likely to shrink necessitating higher taxes
see background information here see background information here see background information here 
Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Stability of rest of the EU much more in doubt. If anyone else leaves big transition costs for everyone. The politics around this are bad.
see background information here 
Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 
Lots of conflicting incentives that can discourage work in the existing rules. I have no idea if scrapping the whole system would be better
see background information here 
Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Probably helped the bottom a bit, but monetary policy would be way, way down on the list of factors affecting inequality.

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
Depends on what happens to the rest of the Obamcare mandates and side payments that are still be litigated

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
shadow banking risks would grow substantially if we go this route and we already saw that they were at the heart of the last crisis

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
I think there are probably some economies of scale that consumers benefit from, but hard to know how much would be lost from downsizing.

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
we badly underinvest in measuring what happens in the economy & it sometimes hampers policy decisions. see Bernanke's memoir for an example

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 

Strongly Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 
Lots of caveats re the benefits of trade, but failure to bargain hard enough is NOT very relevant. We are protectionist in some cases too

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Ken Arrow actually has proved a theorem to this effect (that holds under pretty general conditions).

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Nonetheless, this does not absolve the U.S. citizens if we elect Trump!

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
Expectations about the future are critical and big monthly moves are not because of chance or "speculators"  changing fundamentals matter.
see background information here 
Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
big transition costs to renegotiate various treaties even if Scotland stays in UK. but Scotland wld likely leave UK => even worse for both.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Scotland would be very likely to go and resolving the legal ambiguities will embolden separatists elsewhere such as Catalonia

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
They've talked about rotating demand forever, looks like the markets have lost faith and are worried about bridges to nowhere, etc.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
No obvious failures of the welfare theorems, people have leisure complementarities and some prices are actually lower for shoppers
see background information here 
Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
As Mike Mussa once famously said "if not now, when?".

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
certainly would have voted to raise in september, there are always excuses to delay, time to put two way risk back into the bond market

Disagree  6 
Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on longterm issues in their investments and other decisions.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
It would relieve short term pressure, but not clear that they would necessarily become patient longterm oriented.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
Very hard to know the net effects, for instance it would become easier to hide bad decisions for longer periods.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
I think that is what Chetty and others find, though "easier" is in the eye of the beholder
see background information here 
Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 
seems plausible that other factors ("institutions") could be driving both

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 

Uncertain  5 
Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
In rural areas this will have a significant effect, but in many cities it would not matter much. Teenager employment likely to drop too.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  1 
Given ambiguous employment effects and the aggregate share of people getting raises, I doubt you get "substantially" more output.

Disagree  5 
The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Neither option is great. see my blog post for more complete analysis
see background information here 
Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
Like the Volcker rule, the devil is in the details and most of the time it is very difficult to determine; rule very, very hard to write.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
Will be good for us if japan grows and avoids a crisis. loose monetary policy one example of why a rule is so difficult

Disagree  5 
Behavior in many complex and seemingly intractable strategic settings can be understood more clearly by working out what each party in the game will choose to do if they realize that the other parties will be solving the same problem. This insight has helped us understand behavior as diverse as military conflicts, price setting by competing firms and penalty kicking in soccer.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Nash created a whole new way to look at many problems, not always perfect, but a great starting point and benchmark

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
No one I know would rather face the 1980 bundle of goods (at 1980 prices) than current bundle, at anywhere near the same incomes.

Agree  7 
Californians would be better off on average if all final users in the state paid the same price for water — adjusted for quality, place and time — even if, as a result, some food prices rose sharply and some farms failed.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  7 
The Fed should wait until its preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is clearly rising — and not just forecast to rise — before it begins hiking interest rates.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 
Models focusing on uncertainty about labor mkt slack and the real rate might imply this; financial stability concerns can cut the other way
see background information here 
Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 
Of cours deals differ but usually the taxpayers get fleeced for a limited number of jobs that get relocated

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  5 
This is almost entirely zero sum, with the companies gaining and the taxpayers losing.

Disagree  5 
Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Costs grow as the number declining rises which the doubters do not seem to appreciate

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Measels had been eliminated, it is a shame that it is back. But we should be careful about mandates in general.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 
They will never repay all that is promised anyway & at some point the pain of avoiding default is too much. Exit will be awful in the SR.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  8 
some tax changes more salient than others, but people do respond when the stakes are important

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 
don't think we know for many types of changes

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
We know the direction and for certain types of changes might have some decent estimates. But politics could corrupt the process too

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Based on asking a few people what they thought a basic principles book costs. Most shocked to learn it is well over $200

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
These factors help, but some students would like to be able to keep their books and that cost is much higher now

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 
I don't have a good story for where the market failure or market power comes from, but the relative price has gone way up.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
For the average household this will be a like a tax cut, of course oil producing states suffer a bit, but overall this good news for the US

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
we are lengendary cheap skates. this is why we can't hold the aea convention on a weekend in las veags  we don't spend enough!

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  10 
crazy assertion but plenty of people seem to believe this. to see the fallacy, note that banning imports would do it and would crush welfare

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  1 
Might pull a little spending forward, but doubt it would genuinely increase it.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  1 
not aware of any definitive evidence on this.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Trade deals are about expanding consumption choices not about jobs. Ross Perot's giant sucking sound is a myth

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  1 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
Argument nicely destroyed by Justin Wolfers (and many others). Too bad for the tshirt makers
see background information here 
Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
They innovate: e.g.knowing the rating of the driver who will come and haivng an easy way to find a lost phone after you take the ride.

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
Splitting = extreme economic pain: sharp budget adjustment needed, big monetary challenges, big financial risks, they're "better together".

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Depends on what many means, but the perpetual repaving of roads in Chicago is not that atypical of many public projects.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
see Novy Marx and Rauh for a very clear explanation of the problems
see background information here 
Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Illinois is doing its best to be the first to have to face these choices.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
I have learned that this energy source will mainly produce local gains & US manufacturers probably will benefit. Magnitudes still uncertain

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
This is a very low bar

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
Probably was worth it, but the political economy costs of the poor marketing and the fact that is was poorly designed have dogged it.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 
Data revisions alone cast doubt on this. Instead let's raise the qualifications and pay of who we appoint. Read this bill, very quirky.
see background information here 
Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
That is why narrow banking is a mistake. If we ban this, it will move to the shadow banking system.
see background information here see background information here 
Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
Presumably creates strong incentives for vertical integration. Not clear if that is good or not.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 
Greece's debt is still unsustainable & Europe's banks are undercapitalized. Until that changes risks remain.
see background information here 
Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Players get few rents now. That would change for sure

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Hard to design & sustain in a way that ends up only harming the offender. Better to boycott the world cup in Russia +embarass FIFA too!

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Uncertain  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  8 
We would have never forecast most the past breakthroughs, no reason to think we are any better at doing so now. No way this is knowable.

Uncertain  6 
Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Public may not appreciate this, but Bernanke's Fed helped stave off Depression 2.0. Record before and after will be more controversial.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
The alternative is standing in the rain or waiting forever at rush hour, sometimes paying the premium is just much better

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Motivation for the present has to be nonmonetary  but try giving your spouse cash!

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
I believe the evidence show that some lowskilled natives suffer, but whether many suffer substantially not clear given what I know on this

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Almost everyone should be investing in this way and ignoring tips from friends and experts on particular stocks.

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  9 
The point of this bill is to dial back central independence. Abundant evidence suggests worse monetary policy will follow if it is enacted.

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 
Benefits of more QE now seems small. QE won't cause inflation, but the forward guidance cum QE is creating some financial stability risk.
see background information here 
Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 
curious to see what the IO mavens say about this.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
this would put our status as reserve currency in play; there would probably be forced selling. All bad.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
magnitude is unsure but the direction is surely correct and my guess is that the magnitude is above 0.25.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
Depends on the particulars, but it is usually better to fix the problem that is causing the reversal.

Disagree  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 
Discount window loans are secured and only made to solvent banks. Student loans historically have high default rates. Very bad idea!

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7  Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Time on a Cross was very convincing  and so disturbing to my sisterinlaw that she decided not to be an econ major after reading it!

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Repairing bridges & roads would have been good to do over the last 5 years; the problem is nothing is really shovel ready so it takes time

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Depends on what "many" means, but dollar weighted we do overpay too often. See Calif high speed train

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
It is already trading like a speculative asset and no reason why that will cease.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
The only question is when the tipping point kicks in. Japan will face trouble after Europe is sorted out, as might the UK and maybe then US
see background information here 
Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
OK to threaten it, but losing a deal over this would be bad policy; this reasoning seems to make it much harder to reach deals.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 
Too far from my expertise to say.

Uncertain  4 
Raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour would make it noticeably harder for lowskilled workers to find employment.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
For some it will definitely reduce opportunities, but in other places it will not even be binding Net effect is hard to tell

Uncertain  5 
The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to lowskilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
Total effects are hard to tell, plus there are other policies like the EITC that might be more effective.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Fed actions prove that hitting the zero bound on rates need not imply deflation. BoJ could have stopped this and should be held accountable
see background information here 
Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Deciding whether or not to pay the debts incurred to fund the previously approved tax and spending is nuts.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
Small biz create and destroy lots of jobs, there is no reason to favor them at the expense of others
see background information here 
Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Directionally almost has to be true, but the magnitude is uncertain.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  1 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Medicare and Medicaid are (along with growth) the key factors for long term sustainability. We never paid for the Bush plan, let alone ACA.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  10 
Bankruptcy and liquidation would have been worse, but could have nationalized a couple of the weakest ones, especially Citi.
see background information here 
Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
But traditional bankruptcy and restructuring was an option too. Challenges for financial and nonfinancial firms are totally different.
see background information here 
Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 
Costs will appear in the next crisis; the precedent for a bailout is now set. Reduced incentives for the private sector to hold dry powder.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 
Many ways to use derivatives and other regulatory loopholes to avoid these penalties. So we could make things less safe. Details matter.

Agree  6 
The economic benefits to the U.S. of having a
handful of banks with balance sheets greater than $1 trillion are small.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  1 
US firms are big in all industries and balance sheet size is an imperfect measure. But evidence on scale and scope efficiences is weak.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
Memo to Romney and Obama: there is nothing per se special about manufacturing (except maybe nostalgia).

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 
Not sure of the magnitudes of the distortions once we account for patents and other R&D policies

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Assuming that they actually hold the line on payments.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Also risky assuming premium support is limited; some cherry picking could also cause problems for traditional Medicare

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
POTUS macro choices matter somewhat but most sexy attempts to pander to get votes are inconsequental & shocks they can't control are big.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
don't know how successful they are, but the incentives are clear

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  1 
But the levels of rates matter and just getting the rate capital down might have no meaningful effects.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
This is a powerful factor that is often overlooked: the efficiency vs equity debate is still alive, even if sometimes hidden.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Its outrageous that this is permitted. See NovyMarx and Rauh's IGM funded research to see the massive degree of understatement.
see background information here 
Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Current path is unsustainable; the longer we wait the worse the eventual adjustment, but for OH and IL at least things already look bad.
see background information here 
Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Too many other negative pressures around the world (europe, fiscal cliff, china) for the Fed's policy to make much difference

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Only way this is incorrect is if the Fed ignores lots of warnings. Given current FOMC membership that risk is small.

Uncertain  5 
Even if inflationary
pressures rise substantially as a result of quantitative easing and low
interest rates, the Federal Reserve has ample tools to rein inflation back in
if it chooses to do so.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Lots of ways to tighten and failure to do so would have to be an active choice.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
Better to have backstopped all the banks and let Greece default in early 2010  contagion was manageable then if the banks were supported

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
ECB could inflate things away (and maybe the OMT is the first step) which is another form of default.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  3 
Again inflating is the alternative  a clean restructuring is probably better, but inflation may be the path of least resistance.

Uncertain  4 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  1 
Depends on not forbearing, or picking up costs of past bad private loans. Will the government really put lots of people in debtors prison?

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
The current structure of MMMFs makes them susceptible to runs. So an ugly blow up in Europe could spread to the US via the MMMFs.
see background information here see background information here 
Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Floating NAV definitely ends the risk of a run. Only caveat is what happens to the money that MIGHT migrate. Could be a whack a mole issue

Uncertain  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
SEC has a chance to require this and it would help. This probably leads to more migration than floating NAV.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Leveling the playing field & raising money is good policy; rationalizing the many jurisdictions & various tax rates would be good too.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
A la carte unfortunately is not a panacea.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Can't escape doing something about medical spending and even if we do, we will need more taxes on everyone
see background information here 
Agree  8 
Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  7 
Without the structural reforms these countries medium term outlook is grim.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 
Too many factors about the details of a break up and the policies followed under a bailout need to be specified to answer this.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Greece is doomed absent a complete bailout. But then how do Port, Italy, Spain not get the same deal? When Greece collapses watch for runs

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Lots of distorting effects of taxes. Costs of higher deficits probably modest at the 5 year horizon; eventually can't just keep borrowing.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
May look plausible on a cocktail napkin (or at a cocktail party), but not true empirically in the US.

Strongly Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Failure to understand this is one of biggest common misperceptions by politicians and the general public

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  1 
Over the medium run there should be some adjustment and if China were not in the picture some other country probably would be.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

No Opinion 
too many competing hypotheses and I don't know enough about the evidence to pick between them

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Short run contraction for sure. But long run costs of NOT acting are growing; entitlement reform and some revenue increases are needed.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
3 uncertain steps. Natural gas prices might fall, but cost savings might be minimal, & share of energy costs may be too small to matter.

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Gravity model suggests adverse effects from the embargo, but destroying the price system and using command and control instead hurts more.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  5 
Lower labor supply reduces growth. Increasing life expectancy makes this expensive, if anything retirement age should be hiked further.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
Sold on these grounds, but evidence suggested it backfired.
see background information here 
Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  5 
Seems like pandering, "poststorm cleanup or repair services" are included. It seems like those prices could reasonably soar after a storm.

Disagree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  1 
Predictability does seem unwise, but I am uncertain about the most efficient ways to deliver safety.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
Well documented by Greenspan in 2004! Sadly the F & F losses was one part of the crisis that was foreseen and Congress refused to act.
see background information here 
Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Competitive pressure on bad schools to improve and the ability for some students to escape them would be valuable.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  5 
I see this as the main cost; it is not clear how long people would be trapped, but initially at least some undoubtedly would be worse off.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 
There are efficiency reasons for size & there is the implicit support. Regulatory burden is now higher. No telling how much they'd shrink.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 
Very uncertain about the size of either the efficiency advantages or the net subsidy. US firms usually are large relative global peers.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  9 
Description of the gains is right, and long run employment might be higher too. We can try to compensate short run job losers.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
They could have been tougher on pay and dividends, but just look across the pond to see a much worse alternative way of proceeding.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Everywhere else in the world people without the title "doctor" seem to be able to do more, seems like we should move in this way too.

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
This desperate policy does not work. See Geanakoplos for the dangers of leverage and the inability to short in producing instability.

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
But this is an incredibly low bar.

Agree  7 
Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  7 
Payoffs to special interests (& associated political costs that paralyzed other efforts) made it far less effective than it could have been

Uncertain  6 
Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 

Disagree  6 
The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  3 
Commonly asserted but it is very hard to tell. The fact that CEO pay fell during the 2000s is not widely known.
see background information here 
Uncertain  4 
Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a nonbinding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  5 
We know that it does not seemed to have changed outcomes much so far. Does take up some resources, but the threat might wind up being ok.

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Hard to quantify the exact contribution, but it is undoubtedly big. Also tricky in that it partially interacts with education and trade.

Agree  7 
If the US replaced
its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard,
defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the
pricestability and employment outcomes would be better for the average
American.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  10 
A gold standard regime would be a disaster for any large advanced economy. Love of the G.S. implies macroeconomic illiteracy.

Strongly Disagree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Go see a dentist.

Strongly Agree  9 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  2 

Strongly Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
Basic micro economics

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Have to trade off the costs of the likely extra usage against savings from wasted resources trying to stop the inevitable.

Agree  5 
Credible assumptions for
inflation, GDP growth and primary budget deficits in Italy imply that either
the DebttoGDP ratio in Italy would increase sharply if Italian
interest rates on 10year government debt remained at the November 30
level of around 7 percent or Italy would lose access to the bond
market.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Basic arithmetic of debt dynamics shows that this constellation cannot persist.

Agree  6 
Absent outside help to deal
with runs, such as a pledge of fiscal support from Germany or an unlimited
commitment by the ECB to buy bonds, there is no spendingandtax plan
Italy can announce that would be credible enough
to hold its interest rates low enough to stabilize its
DebttoGDP ratio.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 
Hard call, you can't say the country is insolvent  but how will Italy roll all of its debt if there is no outside support?

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  5 
Lock in is inefficient and there is no good reason to use the tax code to subsidize health insurance purchases.

Strongly Disagree  8 
Federal mandates that
government purchases should be “buy American” unless there are exceptional
circumstances,
such as in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, have a significant positive impact on U.S. manufacturing employment.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  1 

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 
There is no good reason for using the tax system to subsidize home purchases. Lower rates and a broader tax base are the way to go.

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Everyone should have to read Ken French's Presidential Address to the American Finance Association on the perils of active investing.
see background information here 
Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
Never could figure out how pets.com, webvan and various other dotcoms could have ever made money.

Disagree  7 
The Chinese government
pursues policies that keep the renminbi's exchange rate vis à vis the dollar
lower than it would be if the currency floated without those policies.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
The same policies are creating big imbalances in China by thwarting price signals. The eventual adjustment for China could be ugly.
see background information here 
Agree  6 
Public school students would receive
a higher quality education if they all had the option of taking the government
money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own
education and turning that money into vouchers that they
could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of
their choice (e.g. charter schools).
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  3 
Hard to know what the equilibrium will be, but so many kids are trapped now eventually most of them would have better choices.

Uncertain  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  7 

Agree  8 
The cumulative budget shortfalls in the US over the next 10 years can be reduced by half (or more) purely by increasing the federal marginal tax rate on ordinary income for those in the top tax bracket.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 
Too many ways to shift income. If the rate becomes very high labor supply will probably fall. Everyone will have to pay to cut the deficits

Disagree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  10 
The gains will be tiny. Monetary policy is a poor tool for what ails the economy. The mandate says try it, but political risks are real.

Disagree  4 