Aging

February 28th, 2017

This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.

B) In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.

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High-Skilled Immigrant Visas

February 14th, 2017

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, expected US tax revenues will rise materially over the next four years.

B) If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, employment for American workers will rise materially over the next four years.

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City of London

February 7th, 2017

This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) All else equal, there are substantial advantages to having much of Europe’s human capital and infrastructure for international financial activity clustered in a single city, as they are at present in London.

B) All else equal, Britain’s rules on hiring, firing and working hours are significantly more conducive to financial activity than those in other large European countries.

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Sports Stadiums

January 31st, 2017

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Providing state and local subsidies to build stadiums for professional sports teams is likely to cost the relevant taxpayers more than any local economic benefits that are generated.

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Trump and Share Prices

January 17th, 2017

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US after-tax corporate profits.

B) US share prices have risen since Donald Trump’s election victory at least partly because the policies he seems poised to implement are likely to increase US real GDP growth.

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Italy’s Banks

December 21st, 2016

This week’s European IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Setting the EU rules aside, and assuming it would take 2.5% of Italy’s GDP to recapitalize its banks, the Italian government would improve financial stability in Europe if it injected this amount of public funds into its banks.

B) If Italy were to inject public funds into its banks without imposing losses on at least some claimants, an important cost would be the effect on future incentives (economic or political) in Europe.

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Economic Policy Advice

December 21st, 2016

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

The Council of Economic Advisors is likely to give the US president better policy advice if the Chair and Members of the CEA have published peer-reviewed economics research.

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BREXIT: What it Means for Europe and the World

December 15th, 2016
Myron Scholes Forum, December 6th, 2016 Four Booth faculty members with deep knowledge of Europe discuss the implications of Brexit. Panelists are Marianne Bertrand, Christian Leuz, Lubos Pastor, and Randall Kroszner. View Video> Go to Item ›

IGM launches new panel of top European economic experts

December 7th, 2016
How should Europeans respond to the powerful economic forces and the daunting policy challenges they face? Among voters, policy makers and pundits across the region, views differ widely: both over what has been happening in Europe’s economies and over what will happen if different approaches are tried. To support this debate, Chicago Booth’s Initiative on Global Markets has assembled a panel of leading European economic experts.

The panel’s goal is to explore the experts’ views on some of the most important policy questions facing the region – issues such as trade, migration, taxes, banks, markets, and competition – and to share these views directly with the public in a simple way. Continue reading Go to Item ›

Brexit

December 7th, 2016

This week’s IGM European Economics Experts Panel statements:

A) Because of the Brexit vote’s outcome, the UK’s real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.

B) Because of the Brexit vote’s outcome, the rest of the EU’s real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now than it would have been otherwise.

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Financial Trust Index

a measure of confidence Americans have in the private institutions in which they can invest

Visit the Financial Trust Index Site

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Scholes Forum: Brexit: What it Means for Europe and the World

A VIDEO OF THE IGM’S MOST RECENT SCHOLES FORUM TALK CAN BE VIEWED HERE.

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US Monetary Policy Forum

The US Monetary Policy Forum (USMPF) brings academics, market economists, and policy makers together to discuss US monetary policy for an annual conference, sponsored by the IGM. A standing group of academic and private sector economists produces a report on a critical medium-term issue confronting the Federal Open Market Committee.

2016 USMPF REPORT
LANGUAGE AFTER LIFTOFF: FED COMMUNICATION AWAY FROM THE ZERO LOWER BOUND

2015 USMPF REPORT
THE EQUILIBRIUM REAL FUNDS RATE: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE

2014 USMPF REPORT
MARKET TANTRUMS AND MONETARY POLICY

2013 USMPF REPORT
CRUNCH TIME: FISCAL CRISES AND THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2012 USMPF REPORT
HOUSING, MONETARY POLICY, AND THE RECOVERY

2011 USMPF REPORT
STRESSED OUT: MACROPRUDENTIAL PRINCIPLES FOR STRESS TESTING

2010 USMPF REPORT
FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEXES: A NEW LOOK AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

2009 USMPF REPORT
OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY: LESSONS FOR MONETARY POLICY

2008 USMPF REPORT
LEVERAGED LOSSES: LESSONS FROM THE MORTGAGE MARKET MELTDOWN

2007 USMPF REPORT
UNDERSTANDING THE EVOLVING INFLATION PROCESS

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China Economic Summer Institute

The China Economic Summer Institute enables the best Chinese scholars to stay in active contact with top-notch researchers from the rest of the world, and provides a forum to encourage promising young Chinese researchers to work on topics that are important for understanding the Chinese economy. To learn more see the CESI WEBSITE.

SELECTED PAPERS FROM THE 2012 CHINA ECONOMIC SUMMER INSTITUTE:

PUBLIC SCHOOL RESOURCES AND PRIVATE SUBSTITUTES IN URBAN CHINA
by Cheng Yuan and Lei Zhang

A MODEL OF CHINA’S STATE CAPITALISM
by Xi Li, Xuewen Liu, and Yong Wang

A UNIFIED MODEL OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM CHINA
by Hanwei Huang, Jiandong Ju, and Vivian Z. Yue

*The IGM cosponsors the CESI with Tsinghua University; UC Berkeley’s Program on Institutions and Governance; and the Katholieke Universiteit Leaven’s LICOS Center.

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Research on International Accounting, Enforcement, and Global Convergence

Capital-Market Effects of Securities Regulation: The Role of Implementation and Enforcement
by Hans Christensen, Luzi Hail, and Christian Leuz

Christian Leuz proposes creating a “Global Player Segment” in which firms would use the same reporting rules (ie, IFRS), face the same enforcement mechanisms, and have similar incentives for transparent reporting

Read Leuz’s GPS proposal>
See related research paper>

Global Accounting Convergence and the Potential Adoption of IFRS by the United States
by Luzi Hail, Christian Leuz, and Peter Wysocki

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IGM Working Papers

PAPERS FROM THE IGM WORKING PAPER SERIES ARE AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD HERE.

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