Infrastructure Spending

June 6th, 2017

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel Statements:

A)    The US should increase spending now on roads, railways, bridges and airports (including new projects, maintenance or both).
 
B)    The advisability of increasing federal spending on roads, railways, bridges and airports is independent of whether the US also enacts tax cuts that substantially lower revenues.

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France’s Labor Market

May 17th, 2017

This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Revising France’s labor market policies — by reducing employment protection, decentralizing labor negotiations to the firm level, and making training programs more accessible and responsive to labor demands — would, all else equal, increase productivity in France’s economy.

B) Reducing employment protection would reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate in France.

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Baumol’s Cost Disease

May 16th, 2017

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statement:

Because labor markets across different sectors are connected, rising productivity in manufacturing leads the cost of labor-intensive services — such as education and health care — to rise.

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Tax Reforms

May 2nd, 2017

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Since 1980, whenever substantial growth effects have been required to make a tax reform plan revenue neutral, the actual outcome has invariably been a fall in tax revenue as a share of GDP.

B) The tax reform plan proposed by President Trump this week would likely pay for itself through higher economic growth.

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ECB Asset Purchases

April 25th, 2017

This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) The ECB’s asset purchases over the past two years have reduced the threat of deflation in the euro area as a whole.

B) If the economic outlook in the euro area becomes less favorable, then increasing the ECB’s asset purchase program (in size or duration) would substantially increase the euro area’s economic growth over the following five years.

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Border Adjustment Tax

April 12th, 2017

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A)   Implementing a “destination based cash flow tax (including border adjustment)” of the type advocated by Speaker Ryan would substantially reduce the US trade deficit within the next few years.

B)   Implementing a “destination based cash flow tax (including border adjustment)” of the type advocated by Speaker Ryan would substantially raise prices for US consumers.

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Diversified Investing

March 22nd, 2017

This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statement:

In general, absent any inside information, an equity investor can expect to do better by holding a well-diversified, low-fee, passive index fund than by holding a few stocks.

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The CBO

March 21st, 2017

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Forecasting the effects of complex legislative actions is hard, so even competent, non-ideological and non-partisan projections could differ substantially from outcomes.

B) Adjusting for legal restrictions on what the CBO can assume about future legislation and events, the CBO has historically issued credible forecasts of the effects of both Democratic and Republican legislative proposals.

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Aging

February 28th, 2017

This week’s European Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) Without changes in policy, a rising share of people who are over age 65 will exert a substantial downward influence on per capita real GDP in western European countries.

B) In European countries where the share of those over 65 is rising, there are net social benefits to adjusting retirement ages for state-financed (including pay-as-you-go) pension systems upwards, so that revised retirement ages better reflect longer life expectancies.

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High-Skilled Immigrant Visas

February 14th, 2017

This week’s IGM Economic Experts Panel statements:

A) If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, expected US tax revenues will rise materially over the next four years.

B) If the US significantly lowers the number of H-1B visas now, employment for American workers will rise materially over the next four years.

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Financial Trust Index

a measure of confidence Americans have in the private institutions in which they can invest

Visit the Financial Trust Index Site

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Scholes Forum: Brexit: What it Means for Europe and the World

A VIDEO OF THE IGM’S MOST RECENT SCHOLES FORUM TALK CAN BE VIEWED HERE.

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US Monetary Policy Forum

The US Monetary Policy Forum (USMPF) brings academics, market economists, and policy makers together to discuss US monetary policy for an annual conference, sponsored by the IGM. A standing group of academic and private sector economists produces a report on a critical medium-term issue confronting the Federal Open Market Committee.

2016 USMPF REPORT
LANGUAGE AFTER LIFTOFF: FED COMMUNICATION AWAY FROM THE ZERO LOWER BOUND

2015 USMPF REPORT
THE EQUILIBRIUM REAL FUNDS RATE: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE

2014 USMPF REPORT
MARKET TANTRUMS AND MONETARY POLICY

2013 USMPF REPORT
CRUNCH TIME: FISCAL CRISES AND THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2012 USMPF REPORT
HOUSING, MONETARY POLICY, AND THE RECOVERY

2011 USMPF REPORT
STRESSED OUT: MACROPRUDENTIAL PRINCIPLES FOR STRESS TESTING

2010 USMPF REPORT
FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEXES: A NEW LOOK AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

2009 USMPF REPORT
OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY: LESSONS FOR MONETARY POLICY

2008 USMPF REPORT
LEVERAGED LOSSES: LESSONS FROM THE MORTGAGE MARKET MELTDOWN

2007 USMPF REPORT
UNDERSTANDING THE EVOLVING INFLATION PROCESS

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China Economic Summer Institute

The China Economic Summer Institute enables the best Chinese scholars to stay in active contact with top-notch researchers from the rest of the world, and provides a forum to encourage promising young Chinese researchers to work on topics that are important for understanding the Chinese economy. To learn more see the CESI WEBSITE.

SELECTED PAPERS FROM THE 2012 CHINA ECONOMIC SUMMER INSTITUTE:

PUBLIC SCHOOL RESOURCES AND PRIVATE SUBSTITUTES IN URBAN CHINA
by Cheng Yuan and Lei Zhang

A MODEL OF CHINA’S STATE CAPITALISM
by Xi Li, Xuewen Liu, and Yong Wang

A UNIFIED MODEL OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENTS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM CHINA
by Hanwei Huang, Jiandong Ju, and Vivian Z. Yue

*The IGM cosponsors the CESI with Tsinghua University; UC Berkeley’s Program on Institutions and Governance; and the Katholieke Universiteit Leaven’s LICOS Center.

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Research on International Accounting, Enforcement, and Global Convergence

Capital-Market Effects of Securities Regulation: The Role of Implementation and Enforcement
by Hans Christensen, Luzi Hail, and Christian Leuz

Christian Leuz proposes creating a “Global Player Segment” in which firms would use the same reporting rules (ie, IFRS), face the same enforcement mechanisms, and have similar incentives for transparent reporting

Read Leuz’s GPS proposal>
See related research paper>

Global Accounting Convergence and the Potential Adoption of IFRS by the United States
by Luzi Hail, Christian Leuz, and Peter Wysocki

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IGM Working Papers

PAPERS FROM THE IGM WORKING PAPER SERIES ARE AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD HERE.

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