Question A:
Ethanol content requirements and protectionism against imported ethanol (which includes fuel from sugarcane) raise food prices without significantly reducing carbon-dioxide emissions.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
A direct disincentive to emit carbon-dioxide, for example through a carbon tax or an emissions permit market, is more efficient than requiring the use of corn-based ethanol fuels.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Clearly some link between ethanol production and corn prices, but magnitude not clear.
-see background information here |
||||
 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The first part is certainly true.
|
||||
 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
This sounds right, although it relies a bit on some knowledge of the chemistry involved, so I am not completely confident.
|
||||
 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I assume there is some reduction in emissions, but I don't know how much.
|
||||
 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
best evidence is that cost per ton of CO2 abated is very high.
|
||||
 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
At white house we found that 30% of increases in corn prices, 10% of grain, 2% of food caused by ethanol and biodiesel for 2007-08.
|
||||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
At least some price increase to be expected if policy increases demand for corn. CBO study (link below) provides estimates.
-see background information here |
||||
 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
US provisions expired at the end of 2011, but correct up to then. Best estimates are that these were GHG neutral.
|
||||
 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
I'm on the board of publily traded Cosan Ltd. It controls 50% of the world's largest sugar & ethanol producer. This didn't affect my answer
|
||||
 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The first half of the statement is surely true. I have no idea whether emissions are significantly reduced so can't answer the question.
|
||||
 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
The first half is quite certain, but the net effect on carbon is quite complex, with offsetting effects.
|
||||
 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Yes, but most emissions permit schemes do not cover non-stationary sources.
|
||||
|
Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
It would be pure coincidence if forced substitution of one input for another is efficient. A permit market can give the correct tradeoff.
|
||||
|
Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Directly taxing pollutants is better than indirect approaches if pollutants can be adequately monitored.
|
||||
|
Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
if for goal of reducing carbon emmissions then yes, that statement is true. For other goals, uncertain.
|
||||
|
Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Standard efficiency argument, but the calclulatiions show large taxes would be required to have any effect. Elasticies are low.
|
||||
|
Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Mountain of evidence here. See 2010 RfF study.
|
||||
|
Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
One of the true no-brainers.
|
||||
|
Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
|
|
||||
|
Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
Of course we should have a carbon tax or the equivalent. Taxes with negative dead weight loss are good things!
|
||||
|
Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
|
Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
|
|
||||
