Although there are many issues for Scotland’s voters to consider, one consequence of separating from the rest of the UK would be greater macroeconomic instability for Scotland for many years.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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more instabilty may be a price worth paying for independence
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It depends on the exact institutional details of the separation.
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes, but greater long-run macro instability could be merely due, as for many small countries, to less size-related diversification.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Many reasons to be uncertain, but lack of established CB institutions and the drawbacks of the euro & sterilization are reasons to agree.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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no one knows
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Small English-speaking countries have excellent records for macro stability.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The main uncertainty concerns whether Scotland retains the pound (bad idea) and stays in Europe( good idea). Once resolved things may be OK.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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We should be uncertain. Short-term uncertainty would be high, yes, but "many years" depend on choosing sound policies for real growth.
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Similar case as the EU. Shared currency is a constraint.
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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One major challenge would be how to handle the volatility in oil revenues.
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Instability high initially, but could force left-leaning government to govern more effectively. In medium run, may be better for Scotland.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Splitting = extreme economic pain: sharp budget adjustment needed, big monetary challenges, big financial risks, they're "better together".
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is unclear - pegging the Scottish to the English pound might essentially replicate the current state of affairs.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Macro instability will result if announced policies (currency board, nationalizations) are followed.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Scotland would be poor when their oil runs out in a few years, but stability would seem to depend on currency, EU, other uncertainties.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Change creates the potential for instability, but a floating currency with good governance could be stabilizing
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not obvious why fluctuations would be greater. It depends also on what happens to the currency and what happens with the EU.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I suppose this is right, but there is some much uncertainty about how things would play out that I have no confidence in any predictions.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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