|Daron Acemoglu||MIT||Agree||3||Bio/Vote History|
|Alberto Alesina||Harvard||Did Not Answer||Bio/Vote History|
|Joseph Altonji||Yale||Agree||1||Bio/Vote History|
|Alan Auerbach||Berkeley||Agree||7||Bio/Vote History|
|David Autor||MIT||No Opinion||Bio/Vote History|
|Katherine Baicker||Harvard||No Opinion||Bio/Vote History|
|Marianne Bertrand||Chicago||Agree||2||Bio/Vote History|
|Raj Chetty||Harvard||No Opinion||Bio/Vote History|
|Judith Chevalier||Yale||Strongly Agree||6||Bio/Vote History|
|Janet Currie||Princeton||Uncertain||1||Bio/Vote History|
|David Cutler||Harvard||Uncertain||6||Bio/Vote History|
|Angus Deaton||Princeton||No Opinion||Bio/Vote History|
|Darrell Duffie||Stanford||Strongly Agree||8||
Sufficiently extreme monetary policies could have created inflation. The point is whether that would have helped much. Perhaps.
|Aaron Edlin||Berkeley||Agree||7||Bio/Vote History|
|Barry Eichengreen||Berkeley||Strongly Agree||10||Bio/Vote History|
|Ray Fair||Yale||Uncertain||5||Bio/Vote History|
The experts disagree on the role of the Bank of Japan.
|Claudia Goldin||Harvard||No Opinion||Bio/Vote History|
|Austan Goolsbee||Chicago||Agree||6||Bio/Vote History|
|Michael Greenstone||Chicago||Uncertain||1||Bio/Vote History|
Central banks lose control of the price level at the zero lower bound, when their reserves become close substitutes for government debt.
|Bengt Holmström||MIT||Strongly Agree||6||Bio/Vote History|
|Caroline Hoxby||Stanford||Did Not Answer||Bio/Vote History|
|Kenneth Judd||Stanford||Agree||5||Bio/Vote History|
|Anil Kashyap||Chicago||Strongly Agree||10||
Fed actions prove that hitting the zero bound on rates need not imply deflation. BoJ could have stopped this and should be held accountable
-see background information here
|Pete Klenow||Stanford||Strongly Agree||7||
If alternative = sufficiently unconventional and committed.
-see background information here
|Jonathan Levin||Stanford||Agree||3||Bio/Vote History|
|Eric Maskin||Harvard||Agree||6||Bio/Vote History|
Lower interest rates, purchases of long-term assets, and higher inflation target could have raises output and prices.
|Maurice Obstfeld||Berkeley||Strongly Agree||10||Bio/Vote History|
|Emmanuel Saez||Berkeley||Agree||3||Bio/Vote History|
|José Scheinkman||Princeton||Did Not Answer||Bio/Vote History|
Must be directionally right, but recent US experience does not inspire certainty.
|Hyun Song Shin||Princeton||Uncertain||7||Bio/Vote History|
|Nancy Stokey||Chicago||Strongly Agree||9||
A QE policy would likely have prevented the deflation.
|Richard Thaler||Chicago||No Opinion||Bio/Vote History|
|Christopher Udry||Yale||No Opinion||Bio/Vote History|
|Luigi Zingales||Chicago||Did Not Answer||Bio/Vote History|
This panel explores the extent to which economists agree or disagree on major public policy issues. To assess such beliefs we assembled this panel of expert economists. Statistics teaches that a sample of (say) 40 opinions will be adequate to reflect a broader population if the sample is representative of that population.
To that end, our panel was chosen to include distinguished experts with a keen interest in public policy from the major areas of economics, to be geographically diverse, and to include Democrats, Republicans and Independents as well as older and younger scholars. The panel members are all senior faculty at the most elite research universities in the United States. The panel includes Nobel Laureates, John Bates Clark Medalists, fellows of the Econometric society, past Presidents of both the American Economics Association and American Finance Association, past Democratic and Republican members of the President's Council of Economics, and past and current editors of the leading journals in the profession. This selection process has the advantage of not only providing a set of panelists whose names will be familiar to other economists and the media, but also delivers a group with impeccable qualifications to speak on public policy matters.
Finally, it is important to explain one aspect of our voting process. In some instances a panelist may neither agree nor disagree with a statement, and there can be two very different reasons for this. One case occurs when an economist is an expert on a topic and yet sees the evidence on the exact claim at hand as ambiguous. In such cases our panelists vote "uncertain". A second case relates to statements on topics so far removed from the economist's expertise that he or she feels unqualified to vote. In this case, our panelists vote "no opinion".
The Economic Experts Panel questions are emailed individually to the members of the panel, and each responds electronically at his or her convenience. Panelists may consult whatever resources they like before answering.
Members of the public are free to suggest questions (see link below), and the panelists suggest many themselves. Members of the IGM faculty are responsible for deciding the final version of each week’s question. We usually send a draft of the question to the panel in advance, and invite them to point out problems with the wording if they see any. In response, we typically receive a handful of suggested clarifications from individual experts. This process helps us to spot inconsistencies, and to reduce vagueness or problems of interpretation.
The panel data are copyrighted by the Initiative on Global Markets and are being analyzed for an article to appear in a leading peer-reviewed journal.