The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Greece may be better off without, the euro but political risks, especially with current government, would be great, so a no is very risky
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I think that a exchange rate change may generate a more sustainable direction for the greek economy
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Not my area but I have found Meghir and Kashyap persuasive on this.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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YES (lowering the chance of a needed devaluation) and NO (greater economic chaos and less structural reform) are both very bad for Greeks.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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In fact package is no longer on offer. A yes however creates hope of negotiating a better package w debt relief. No opens the door to chaos
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There are so many possible scenarios in either case of a "yes" or "no" vote, no one has any idea of what can happen.
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Even better would be an immediate debt writeoff coupled with a new relation to the eurosystem that blocked further access to credit.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Yes means more of the same for Greece. No means a very uncertain future. But the Euro was a bad idea and should end as soon as possible.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Neither option is great. see my blog post for more complete analysis
-see background information here |
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The bailout package means austerity---which is bad for the median citizen. But the uncertainty from a "no" vote could be worse.
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to know because involves primarily whether current incompetent government will survive, and whether new one can do better.
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Voting no as a bargaining chip is not promising. There should be mutual gains from keeping Greece in the euro, if the will can be found.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No good choice. If Yes Greece left with unsustainable debt burden. If No, Greece left with Tsipras-Varoufakis and possibly unplanned Grexit.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More likely than not, I think, but far from certain.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A yes vote leads Greece down a painful path. A no vote will lead down a much worse one, likely Grexit, legal battles, isolation, etc.
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Both options are completely unspecified, and neither looks attractive. Both sides could use some negotiations training.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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