US

Too Big to Fail

Question A:

The average size of the 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) would be substantially smaller if they did not have implicit government support.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

The 19 financial firms that just completed the Federal Reserve stress tests (i.e. the CCAR) are big primarily because of economies of scale and scope, rather than because of implicit government support.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Tbtf implies cheap debt financing of assets. There are other reasons to be big. Big clients often want large deals or one-stop shopping.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Disagree
4
Bio/Vote History
not really about size, it's about interconnection
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Bailouts seem to increase skew in all countries, but I don't know of counterfactual evidence to answer question
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
There are efficiency reasons for size & there is the implicit support. Regulatory burden is now higher. No telling how much they'd shrink.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Some might not have survived 2008-2009, so pretty clearly correct.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Certainly smaller, but "substantrially" smaller is unclear and subjective.
Rouse
Cecilia Rouse
Princeton
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Disagree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Presumably they are all competing to be in the TBTF group.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
3
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
They are larger than they should be because of bailout guarantees and subsidies to leverage. There may also be economies of scale and scope.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Disagree
5
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Uncertain
2
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Uncertain
9
Bio/Vote History
Both factors are likely to be present, but we lack sufficient research on magnitudes.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
explicit support like FDIC much more important than implict supports
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Uncertain
4
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Uncertain
5
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
This is not my area of expertise, so I would rather defer to the experts on this.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Very uncertain about the size of either the efficiency advantages or the net subsidy. US firms usually are large relative global peers.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Uncertain
6
Bio/Vote History
Both are important but don't know of persuasive studies on relative importance of these two factors.
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Uncertain
7
Bio/Vote History
Clearly there is a government subsidy element, but its size is hard to quantify, and therefore compare to other factors.
Rouse
Cecilia Rouse
Princeton
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Disagree
8
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Difficult to know how to interpret "big" and "primarily."
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
No Opinion
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History