Question A:
Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will generate gains in the health and well-being of the newly insured that exceed the costs.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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First result from Oregon study: People with health insurance use more healthcare
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It is unlikely to reduce healthcare spending, but I am not aware of a full assessment.
-see background information here |
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The timing is really important here. Long term can be very different from short term; costs more likely to fall in the long term.
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It's hard to believe that spending per person receiving services will go down enough to offset the number of people getting health care.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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More insurance could lead to more usage and more spending. The countervailing hope is cost containment or prevention of expensive treatment.
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Many countervailing factors, though I am weakly inclined toward the agree side of uncertain.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Basic economic theory (demand curves slope down) + tons empirical evidence - RAND HIE + Oregon HIE + many quasi-experimental studies
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The ACA caved to demands for excessively broad coverage.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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It could fall as people get more preventative care; or rise as people use doctors more. Some evidence suggests the latter but it's early.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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When you increase availability, you get more demand. In our institutional environment, very hard to see how costs do not go up.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Certain kinds of acute-care spending may fall due to better preventative care. But an overall fall in spending seems unlikely
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Health care insurance should provide care more efficiently than the current lack of insurance coupled with reliance on emergency services.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A big switch from reliance on emergency rooms to prevention could do this, but this does not seem likely.
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Obviously could go either way.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Demand curves usually slope down. Evidence is that this is true for health care. Cost savings measures will mitigate but not outweigh this.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A lot of uncertainty, and ACA has a lot of problems (esp. to rein in costs and tackle distortions). Probably still benefits outweigh costs.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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That's just a prior. No evidence yet
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Likely yes, though there are substantial uncertainties.
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The resulting gains include better health for newly covered, and fewer preventable high-cost diseases to treat. The total should be enough.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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i think yes but ultimately involves thorny issues of valuing improvements in health and reductions in consumption risk
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The expansion of coverage was mainly intended to bring in healthy people whose payments would exceed their medical costs.
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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ACA allows ill people to see doctors and provides peace of mind. Both would be negotiated behind the veil of ignorance. Net benefit>0.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The experiments in Oregon suggest the benefits are modest and the costs higher. But, there is stiil much uncertainty.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Basic medical care, especially preventative care, brings gains that are large compared to the costs.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is, of course, the rationale for the program, and it is not implausible.
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very difficult question. Counting cost properly is hard enough; valuing the benefits even more challenging.
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