US

Free Trade

Question A:

Freer trade improves productive efficiency and offers consumers better choices, and in the long run these gains are much larger than any effects on employment.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

On average, citizens of the U.S. have been better off with the North American Free Trade Agreement than they would have been if the trade rules for the U.S., Canada and Mexico prior to NAFTA had remained in place.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Economists often understate short-term employment costs, which are significant and unequally distributed, but probably less than benefits.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Gains and losses are not spread evenly. Retraining programs are an important part of trade policy.
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Uncertain
8
Bio/Vote History
Not sure how to compare the gains to consumers with long run effects on employment. They might both be positive!
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Note that not everyone is better off.
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
The "gains" are positive a general additive sense, but that does not avoid costs to some.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Consider any tribe or group that was isolated from trade for centuries to see the long run results of autarky
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
General message of trade theory. But the question is how long the "long run" is.
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Trade creates tremendous benefits but causes substantial job losses Do current policies fully compensate displaced workers? Probably not
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
liberalization has such large long-run benefits that it can fund short-run dislocation assistance
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
The world's endowment is allocated more efficiently under free trade, making the avg person better off. Individuals may face adjustmt costs.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Description of the gains is right, and long run employment might be higher too. We can try to compensate short run job losers.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Jim Feyrer has some ingenious papers finding evidence of income gains from trade.
-see background information here
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Estimates used by CEA of the effect of complete free trade are as large as $500 billion per year - enormous even if off by a scalar.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Rouse
Cecilia Rouse
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
I agree with the statement as worded. There could be other, less desirable, impacts as well.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Gains are sufficiently large to finance the compensation of workers in loosing sectors.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
If that's not right, almost all of economics is wrong.
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Nevertheless, there are winners and losers. Trade does not make everybody better off, and a good policy should take this into account.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
This needs more nuance: most people win, and the winners gain a lot. But there are losers from trade who have not in fact been compensated.
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
NAFTA was small potatoes relative to rising China trade. My hunch is that both costs and benefits were modest.
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Uncertain
3
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
On "average" is an important qualifier.
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Uncertain
1
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
See my answer to question A. However, short- and medium-run effects of NAFTA, especially on employment and wages in the US, unclear.
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
True for the average but complicated issues of social welfare functions here. better compensation for folks who do not gain might help
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Not to mention benefits to Canadians and Mexicans! We should take a global perspective.
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
The question is about averages. Distributional income and employment effects hard to measure, but probably significant.
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Although difficult to estimate, there is little evidence of negative effects of NAFTA and the positives are obvious.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Rouse
Cecilia Rouse
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Such is the result of much of the empirical literature.
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
This is true about the average.
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
But the gains have probably been very small.
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
The key word is on average: there are large distributional effects.