If the fiscal changes that are planned under current US law take place next year — including Bush era tax cuts expiring, Medicare payment rates to doctors being cut, the AMT applying to many more taxpayers, and automatic cuts in defense and non-defense discretionary spending kicking in — then US real GDP growth in 2013 will be lower than it would be under the CBO's alternative fiscal scenario, in which the above changes do not occur.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Nevertheless, I'd rather go over the 'fiscal cliff' than renew our irresponsible and unsustainable spend-don't-tax policies.
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is the debate. On net, I am still on the Keynesian side.
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 Janet Currie |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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These measures could lower growth in 2013; the alternative has projected deficits of 5.3% (vs 1.4%) for many years; that's not good either!
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Lower spending and higher taxes imply slower growth. But alternative scenario would lead to higher deficit.
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 Claudia Goldin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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you've got to be kidding me. of course it would be lower.
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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All macro models agree that lower product demand and higher taxes reduce current output and employment.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Some of the policies listed are anti-growth, some pro-growth, so it's hard to evaluate them succinctly as a package.
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Short run contraction for sure. But long run costs of NOT acting are growing; entitlement reform and some revenue increases are needed.
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Presuming it does not have a big effect on either (1) expected fiscal policy in future years, or (2) unconventional monetary policy.
-see background information here |
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 Edward Lazear |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Most of the action is on the tax side as CBO documents. See my WSJ op-ed on May 18, 2012 about this.
-see background information here |
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Maurice Obstfeld |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hyun Song Shin |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 James Stock |
Harvard | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Nancy Stokey |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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If all these changes do kick in at the end of 2012, it is hard to imagine they would be left in place for all of 2013. So then what?
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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No brainer.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Luigi Zingales |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The worst aspect is the perduring uncertainty on what will happen
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