US

China-US Trade

Question A:

Trade with China makes most Americans better off because, among other advantages, they can buy goods that are made or assembled more cheaply in China.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question B:

Some Americans who work in the production of competing goods, such as clothing and furniture, are made worse off by trade with China.

Responses weighted by each expert's confidence

Question A Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
But with lots of caveats. There are many losers; transaction costs of reallocation and technology transfer have significant costs.
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Strongly Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Failure to understand this is one of biggest common misperceptions by politicians and the general public
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Also expands the pool of talent using and producing ideas.
-see background information here
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Trade with China has lowered prices paid by the average consumer, in some sectors, by significant amounts.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
4
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History

Question B Participant Responses

Participant University Vote Confidence Bio/Vote History
Acemoglu
Daron Acemoglu
MIT
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Alesina
Alberto Alesina
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Altonji
Joseph Altonji
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Auerbach
Alan Auerbach
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Autor
David Autor
MIT
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Please see my paper with David Dorn and Gordon Hanson, "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Impacts of Import Competition in the U.S."
-see background information here
Baicker
Katherine Baicker
University of Chicago
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Bertrand
Marianne Bertrand
Chicago
Agree
2
Bio/Vote History
Chetty
Raj Chetty
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Chevalier
Judith Chevalier
Yale
Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Currie
Janet Currie
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Cutler
David Cutler
Harvard
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Deaton
Angus Deaton
Princeton
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Duffie
Darrell Duffie
Stanford
Agree
3
Bio/Vote History
Edlin
Aaron Edlin
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Someone loses from almost anything.
Eichengreen
Barry Eichengreen
Berkeley
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Fair
Ray Fair
Yale
Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goldberg
Pinelopi Goldberg
Yale
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Goldin
Claudia Goldin
Harvard
Strongly Agree
5
Bio/Vote History
Goolsbee
Austan Goolsbee
Chicago
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Greenstone
Michael Greenstone
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Hall
Robert Hall
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Holmström
Bengt Holmström
MIT
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Hoxby
Caroline Hoxby
Stanford
Uncertain
10
Bio/Vote History
This may be true but it depends on how much they benefit from cheaper goods and what their costs of adjusting to new jobs is.
Judd
Kenneth Judd
Stanford
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
While they may lose due to trade with China, the US free trade policies are beneficial to them on average.
Kashyap
Anil Kashyap
Chicago Booth
Agree
1
Bio/Vote History
Over the medium run there should be some adjustment and if China were not in the picture some other country probably would be.
Klenow
Pete Klenow
Stanford
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Lazear
Edward Lazear
Stanford
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Although there are overall benefits, some, especially with specific skills, are hurt because they cannot transition costlessly to new jobs.
Levin
Jonathan Levin
Stanford Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Maskin
Eric Maskin
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Nordhaus
William Nordhaus
Yale
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Obstfeld
Maurice Obstfeld
Berkeley
Strongly Agree
10
Bio/Vote History
Saez
Emmanuel Saez
Berkeley
Agree
6
Bio/Vote History
Scheinkman
José Scheinkman
Columbia University
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Schmalensee
Richard Schmalensee
MIT
Strongly Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Shin
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton
Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Stock
James Stock
Harvard Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History
Stokey
Nancy Stokey
University of Chicago
Strongly Agree
8
Bio/Vote History
Thaler
Richard Thaler
Chicago Booth
Agree
7
Bio/Vote History
Udry
Christopher Udry
Northwestern
Strongly Agree
9
Bio/Vote History
Both of these are vital truths about trade & illustrate why we need both free trade & public support for those who are hurt.
Zingales
Luigi Zingales
Chicago Booth Did Not Answer Bio/Vote History