Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Disagree  10 
Even if the $13K # came from coherent theory/evidence (which it does NOT), this ignores all tagging logic of social insurance/optimal tax.

Disagree  6 
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Uncertain  6 
The 90th percentile is below the wealth level most affected so the answer is not obvious.

Uncertain  4 
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Uncertain  10 
The Cad tax is meant to counter other distortions so this is a q of whether 4th best fixes 3rd best. An economist who says he knows is wrong

Agree  7 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  4 
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Did Not Answer 

Strongly Agree  8 
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Did Not Answer 

Strongly Agree  7 
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No Opinion 
This question is a good but complicated one. I would like to be able to answer but a cursory explanation cannot do justice to the issue.

Disagree  6 
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Strongly Agree  10 

Strongly Agree  8 
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Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  8 
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Agree  10 

Disagree  7 
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Strongly Disagree  10 

Uncertain  5 
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Agree  5 

Agree  6 
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Uncertain  5 
Of course, it is unsustainable in the very long run, but neartomid term sustainability is at least plausible.

Agree  6 
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Disagree  6 
The holidays may make us more altruistic, mindful of social good. I believe this, actually, but gifts/travel/spending do not seem essential

Agree  6 
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Agree  8 

Uncertain  5 
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Agree  6 

Disagree  6 
Letting publicly traded US firms report earnings annually rather than quarterly would lead their executives to place more weight on longterm issues in their investments and other decisions.
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Disagree  8 
Smart investors are perfectly capable of evaluating firms using a combination of multiple quarterly reports.

Uncertain  5 
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Disagree  7 
It is difficult for someone to benefit from being forced to be less informed. There is such a thing as free disposal.

Uncertain  5 
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No Opinion 
If I could answer a wellworded question re: modern valueadded methods, I would say "strongly agree" but this question is too badly worded.

Agree  5 
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Strongly Agree  10 

Uncertain  5 
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Disagree  8 
If this were $1 of consumption and not income, yes. Also if we mean "income" inferred from consumption, yes. But cash income is poor measure

Uncertain  5 
Expanding health insurance to more people through the ACA’s public subsidies and Medicaid expansion will reduce total healthcare spending in the economy.
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Strongly Disagree  9 

Disagree  6 
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Uncertain  10 

Agree  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Disagree  5 
The median Greek citizen will be better off if there is a “yes” vote in the July 5 referendum on whether to accept the terms of the bailout package offered by Greece's creditors.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  7 

Uncertain  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Disagree  5 
Behavior in many complex and seemingly intractable strategic settings can be understood more clearly by working out what each party in the game will choose to do if they realize that the other parties will be solving the same problem. This insight has helped us understand behavior as diverse as military conflicts, price setting by competing firms and penalty kicking in soccer.
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Strongly Agree  10 
Thank you, John Nash!

Strongly Agree  8 
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Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  7 
Californians would be better off on average if all final users in the state paid the same price for water — adjusted for quality, place and time — even if, as a result, some food prices rose sharply and some farms failed.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
Law of 1 price would generate enormous gains (from trade)much more than enough to compensate family farms hurt in transition to sanity.

Agree  7 
The Fed should wait until its preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is clearly rising — and not just forecast to rise — before it begins hiking interest rates.
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Disagree  8 
The statement would appear to be inconsistent with the empirical evidence of past inflation episodes.

Uncertain  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Disagree  5 
Declining to be vaccinated against contagious diseases such as measles imposes costs on other people, which is a negative externality.
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Strongly Agree  10 
This is "first principles" in economics.

Strongly Agree  9 
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No Opinion 
This question requires one to impose a social welfare function which is something an economist should NEVER do. No one made us God.

Agree  7 
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Agree  6 

Uncertain  5 
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Strongly Agree  10 

Strongly Agree  9 
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Agree  10 

Uncertain  6 
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Agree  6 
It's wrong of them not to TRY because then they are knowingly getting things wrong. However, they could easily make a mess of it.

Uncertain  5 
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No Opinion 
I am not aware of any data on this question so I would just be guessing.

Agree  5 
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Strongly Agree  10 
It is costly to change a textbook much with each edition so students can use much cheaper past editions with little intellectual loss.

Agree  7 
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Uncertain  8 
There is an agency problem (instructors=agents, students=principals) but not severe owing to used books and student evaluations.

Disagree  5 
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Strongly Agree  10 
The U.S. econom remains strongly anticyclical in oil prices. Some industries suffer from lower prices, but they are dominated by winners.

Agree  7 
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Agree  5 
Deep Q: By being dismal (scientists), do economists exert a negative gen eqm effect on the natives, thereby actually depressing consumption?

Agree  6 
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Uncertain  8 
1st principles: neither surplus nor deficit necessarily welfareenhance. SOME welfareenhancing policies would raise surplus, however.

Disagree  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Disagree  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
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Agree  6 
If president is protrade, the answer is yes. However, giving an antitrade president greater powers could reduce quality of trade agreemts

Agree  7 
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Strongly Agree  10 
Most (though not all) Americans gain b/c consumption & productivity benefits outweigh loss of industry/occupationspecific human capital.

Agree  7 
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Uncertain  10 
There appears to be no soundly derived empirical evidence for this claim. I read every article related to this and its just not there.

Disagree  5 
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Uncertain  10 
There is evidence of higher diversity & price elasticity in online book retail so there would need to be serious evidence to offset this.

Disagree  5 
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Strongly Disagree  10 
Argument has poor theory & negligible empirics. Read pp79 of Acemoglu & Robinson. You need not even buy into their institutional arguments
see background information here see background information here 
Disagree  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Strongly Agree  8 
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Uncertain  10 
We should be uncertain. Shortterm uncertainty would be high, yes, but "many years" depend on choosing sound policies for real growth.

Agree  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  7 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
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Disagree  10 
Fuel prices are largely set on a world market so the supply in any one country does not reduce its producers' input costs markedly.

Uncertain  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  7 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Disagree  7 
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Did Not Answer 

Disagree  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  6 
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Agree  8 
"Social value" is odd wording. However, such institutions are likely to make markets more efficient by relaxing undue liquidity constraints

Agree  8 
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Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  6 
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No Opinion 
This is an illposed question as I told the organizers. No good economist should answer it. Should have been in productivity not wages.

Agree  6 
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Strongly Agree  10 
Answer obvious on efficiency grounds. On distribution, use other means to redistribute to poornot covert internet cross subsidization.

Uncertain  5 
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Agree  8 

Uncertain  6 
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Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  7 
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Uncertain  10 
Depends on country, its trade, its politics. Also, sanctions that are initially apparently ineffective can gradually undermine a regime.

Uncertain  5 
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Uncertain  8 
Would improve allocative efficiency but means and healthconditioned vouchers would presumably have to be used to address ethical concerns.

Uncertain  7 
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Agree  5 
Hard to be certain b/c a GE issue, but little econ history supports mechanization having reduced employment.

Agree  7 
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Uncertain  8 
Skill biased tech probably a cause of flat median wages,but there are MANY other causes. GE problems like this cannot be sorted definitively

Uncertain  6 
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Uncertain  10 
I am certain that anyone sensible should be uncertain. If one can predict innovation well, one should not be an economist but an inventor.

Uncertain  6 
Informed postmortems of Ben Bernanke’s Fed chairmanship will judge favorably the Fed's creative and aggressive policy initiatives from autumn 2008 through early 2009.
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Uncertain  8 
In retrospect, some responses seem prescient, others misguided or based on false premises. Phil Swagel's paper is a great read on this.
see background information here 
Agree  7 
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Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  8 
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Did Not Answer 

Disagree  7 
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Uncertain  10 
I am sure that I am uncertain. A certain answer would require a knowledge of general eqm effects on which we've only a partial grasp.

Agree  5 
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Uncertain  10 
Lowskilled workers would probably be worse off but positive gen eqm effects might offset negative direct effects.

Agree  6 
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Agree  9 
There is ample empirical evidence for this claim.

Strongly Agree  9 
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Did Not Answer 

Strongly Disagree  7 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  5 
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No Opinion 
Poor question. The federal govt could make its interest payments on current debt even if the debt ceiling were not raised.

Agree  6 
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Uncertain  7 
Odd q! Paying for entitlement prgm liabilities over LT a big problem for econ grwth but ST effects of ST uncertainty not easily quantified.

Uncertain  5 
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Disagree  5 
The right answer depends on the circumstances, especially whether permanent or temporary events account for outflows. Usually: disagree.

Disagree  4 
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Uncertain  1 
I'd have to do more research into this topic. It's clear what the issues are in theory, so it's a matter of facts.

Uncertain  4 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
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Strongly Agree  10 
The research is quite unambiguous on this point. I have not seen any contrary findings (although savvy savers are unaffected by defaults).

Agree  7 
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Agree  8 
Artificial depression of saving, which is the (unintentional) effect of many govt policies, reduces welfare unless itoffsets some distortion

Agree  7 
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Agree  8 
I read & do not research this topic, but this is my takeaway from much reading. I would defer to greater experts, however.

Agree  7 
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Agree  8 
Energy prices are set by world mkt.Restrictions are thus difficult to justify except for national security & especial fragile local environm

Agree  6 
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Disagree  9 
The best evidence with anything like a CAUSAL character suggests that this is untrue. There is lots of junk correlational evidence: ignore.

Agree  6 
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Agree  9 
Best credibly CAUSAL evidence suggests this statement is, broadly speaking, correct. Of course, there are exceptions.

Uncertain  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
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Uncertain  6 
First part is right: value derives frm belief others want to use it for trade. Second part is not obvious: beliefs could stabilize or not.

Agree  6 
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Agree  9 

Agree  7 
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Agree  9 
If there a true distortion (e.g. environmental) that needs correction, it should be addressed directly, not through distorting trade.

Uncertain  5 
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Uncertain  10 
Bad Q!. Univ preK is wasteful b/c much is pure transfer to upperinc families. However social returns to highly touted prgms very uncertain!

Uncertain  4 
Raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour would make it noticeably harder for lowskilled workers to find employment.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  10 
Unemployment among lowskilled workers is already high by historic standards, indicating that wages are already too high for marketclearing

Uncertain  5 
The distortionary costs of raising the federal minimum wage to $9 per hour and indexing it to inflation are sufficiently small compared with the benefits to lowskilled workers who can find employment that this would be a desirable policy.
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Strongly Disagree  10 
Workers most likely to benefit are those with medium skills. Workers most likely to lose (be unemployed) are those with the lowest skills.

Uncertain  5 
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Uncertain  10 
As a matter of economics,question does not have a simple answer.There are tradeoffs.Canada's immigration suggests positive overall effects.

Agree  7 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  7 
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Strongly Disagree  9 
Generally, the government is not in a good position to pick winners/losers in the private sector, and I do not see a clear externality here.

Disagree  6 
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Strongly Agree  10 
The chained CPI CCPIU gets conditional COLI approx right because it allows bundle of goods to adjust. CPIW is an upper bound on COLI.
see background information here 
Uncertain  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  7 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  7 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  7 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
The economic benefits to the U.S. of having a
handful of banks with balance sheets greater than $1 trillion are small.
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Disagree  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
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Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  8 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  7 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  7 
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Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  7 
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Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Agree  7 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 

Uncertain  5 
Even if inflationary
pressures rise substantially as a result of quantitative easing and low
interest rates, the Federal Reserve has ample tools to rein inflation back in
if it chooses to do so.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  6 

Agree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Agree  7 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Strongly Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Disagree  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  4 
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Uncertain  5 
This is purely empirical q that depends on degree to which the barrier binds. I've seen evidence for/against so this is a q for area experts

Agree  7 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Agree  5 
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Agree  8 

Agree  8 
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No Opinion 
This is one possible remedy for the problem, but not the only one. It also has some features incompatible with the intended use of MMFs.

Uncertain  7 
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No Opinion 
This is one possible remedy for the problem, but not the only one. It also has some features incompatible with the intended use of MMFs.

Uncertain  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  7 
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Strongly Agree  10 
The bundling is likely good for some consumers and back for others. There are few if any models of bundling in which it is bad for all.

Agree  5 
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Strongly Agree  10 
Fiscal gap studies (e.g. Auerbach, Kotlikoff) show this is true unless, of course, health care costs fall dramaticallybut why should they?

Agree  8 
Assuming that Germany eventually agrees to backstop the debt of southern European countries, the eurozone as a whole will be better off if that bailout is unconditional, rather than accompanied by the labor market reforms and future budget controls that Germany is demanding of countries in return.
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Disagree  6 

Disagree  6 
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Disagree  8 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  6 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Strongly Disagree  7 
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Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  8 
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Uncertain  10 
This may be true but it depends on how much they benefit from cheaper goods and what their costs of adjusting to new jobs is.

Agree  8 
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Uncertain  10 
This is ONE poss supply explanation.There are many demand and policy explan about which most economists answering this Q know little. Bad Q!

Uncertain  5 
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Uncertain  5 
Some of the policies listed are antigrowth, some progrowth, so it's hard to evaluate them succinctly as a package.

Agree  7 
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No Opinion 
A silly gotcha q! Fracking may lower gas price but it's traded on world mkt so it won't make any country's exports more cost competitive.Duh

Disagree  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  9 
If Cuba allocated labor & capital to the most productive uses, growth would be higher. The US is too small as % of world trade to prevent it

Agree  6 
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Strongly Agree  10 
Generational accts show that lowering the retirement age would increase future liabilities and thus future tax rates, reducing productivity

Agree  7 
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Disagree  6 
Hard to evaluate this policy empirically because of gen eqm effects. It's based on wrongheaded thinking, though: a fixed employment pie.

Disagree  6 
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Disagree  10 
I sympathize w the intention but goods must be allocated in some way & prices are better than first come or fights breaking out among people

Disagree  6 
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Disagree  10 
Unconditional randomization is dumb. Randomization CONDITIONAL on a person's characteristics w enormous penalties for dangerous items: yes.

Uncertain  5 
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Strongly Agree  10 
Classic example in which good (tickets) are not allocated to those who value them most. Only exception:ticketholder's identity matters.

Agree  7 
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Did not answer 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Uncertain  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  5 
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Agree  6 

Uncertain  5 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Uncertain  6 
This is not my area of expertise, so I would rather defer to the experts on this.

Uncertain  5 
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Uncertain  7 
Direct effect (e.g.via oil reserve) of Fed energy policy on short term prices=negligible. Effect on longrun prices could be considerable.

Agree  8 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Strongly Agree  10 
The world's endowment is allocated more efficiently under free trade, making the avg person better off. Individuals may face adjustmt costs.

Agree  8 
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Strongly Agree  8 

Agree  6 
Vote  Confidence  Comments  Median Survey Vote  Median Survey Confidence 

Did Not Answer 

Agree  6 
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No Opinion 
This is a question to which only an economist in the field would know the best answer. Knowing what one knows is the essence of expertise.

Agree  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  5 
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Strongly Disagree  5 
High confidence on an issue like this would be foolish.That being said, the depressing effect of future liabilities likely exceeded benefits

Agree  7 
Taking into account all of the ARRA’s economic consequences — including the economic costs of raising taxes to pay for the spending, its effects on future spending, and any other likely future effects — the benefits of the stimulus will end up exceeding its costs.
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Strongly Disagree  5 
same as above

Uncertain  6 
Local ordinances that limit rent increases for some rental housing units, such as in New York and San Francisco, have had a positive impact over the past three decades on the amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
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Strongly Disagree  10 
Rent controlled units do not end up in the hands of low income people. Rent control discourages landlords from creating modest priced units.

Disagree  6 
The typical chief executive officer of a publicly traded corporation in the U.S. is paid more than his or her marginal contribution to the firm's value.
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Uncertain  8 
This depends on how the CEO adds valueas a % increase on the firm's profit base or as an absolute amt. If the former, no is more likely.
see background information here 
Uncertain  4 
Mandating that U.S. publicly listed corporations must allow shareholders to cast a nonbinding vote on executive compensation was a good idea.
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Uncertain  10 
The vote is good for governance, but mandating it is not. If you don't like how executives are paid, sell the shares.

Uncertain  5 
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Agree  8 
It's likely that technological progress has favored high aptitude people. The evidence is only indirect,however: it's a residual explanation

Agree  7 
If the US replaced
its discretionary monetary policy regime with a gold standard,
defining a "dollar" as a specific number of ounces of gold, the
pricestability and employment outcomes would be better for the average
American.
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Disagree  7 
Since gold has supply and demand dynamics of its own, for reasons unrelated to its use as a store of value, Americans would exposed to risk.

Strongly Disagree  8 
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Agree  10 

Strongly Agree  9 
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Strongly Agree  10 
Yes, so long as congestion taxes are based on the TRUE social costs of congestion and really reduce other taxes. Let prices allocate demand

Strongly Agree  8 
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Did Not Answer 

Strongly Agree  7 
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Strongly Agree  10 

Agree  8 
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Uncertain  10 
The evidence on this is very unclear because many of the consequences are not only hard to estimate, but hard to value. See Pudney papers..
see background information here see background information here 
Agree  5 
Credible assumptions for
inflation, GDP growth and primary budget deficits in Italy imply that either
the DebttoGDP ratio in Italy would increase sharply if Italian
interest rates on 10year government debt remained at the November 30
level of around 7 percent or Italy would lose access to the bond
market.
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Agree  9 
At those interest rates, Italy's interest payments will become an ever increasing share of its govt budget, under any plausible tax scenario

Agree  6 
Absent outside help to deal
with runs, such as a pledge of fiscal support from Germany or an unlimited
commitment by the ECB to buy bonds, there is no spendingandtax plan
Italy can announce that would be credible enough
to hold its interest rates low enough to stabilize its
DebttoGDP ratio.
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Agree  8 
A political economy question on the spending side! (The tax side is fairly clear.) It fits my knowledge of Italy's ability to cut spending

Uncertain  5 
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Strongly Disagree  10 
Tax prefs create job lock, prevent formation of a more competitive health insurance mkt, & discourage insurance coverage among young workers

Strongly Disagree  8 
Federal mandates that
government purchases should be “buy American” unless there are exceptional
circumstances,
such as in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, have a significant positive impact on U.S. manufacturing employment.
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Strongly Disagree  10 
While it is possible to write a model in which the intended effect would occur, govt purchases are too small a share to make a model work.

Disagree  5 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  7 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  7 
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Did Not Answer 

Strongly Agree  8 
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Did Not Answer 

Disagree  7 
The Chinese government
pursues policies that keep the renminbi's exchange rate vis à vis the dollar
lower than it would be if the currency floated without those policies.
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Agree  6 

Agree  6 
Public school students would receive
a higher quality education if they all had the option of taking the government
money (local, state, federal) currently being spent on their own
education and turning that money into vouchers that they
could use towards covering the costs of any private school or public school of
their choice (e.g. charter schools).
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Strongly Agree  10 
There is enough in avg student's perpupil budget for a solid supplyside responsei.e. what's needed for widespread benefits of competition

Uncertain  6 
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Did Not Answer 

Agree  8 
The cumulative budget shortfalls in the US over the next 10 years can be reduced by half (or more) purely by increasing the federal marginal tax rate on ordinary income for those in the top tax bracket.
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Did Not Answer 

Disagree  7 
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Disagree  9 

Disagree  4 